Will we hide a “liberation day” tariff in Donald Trump to recession?

Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff is a severe threat to an American economy that has already loses momentum, as economists warn of the high prices of families and an increased risk of recession in the wake of the president’s ads.

Analysts said the combination of the basic duty, which reached 10 percent with a two -number two tariffs on the main partners, including China and the European Union will escalate prices for a wide range of imports, damage business investments and deepen the risk of high inflation and weak growth.

Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch TransIns, said that the rate of US tariffs on all imports will be 22 percent, compared to 2.5 percent last year, which puts him at the highest level since 1910. This is a “games change” for the American economy and the world in general, he said. Barclays analysts expect US production to decrease in the fourth quarter of this year.

“The chances of the American recession over the next 12 months are materially higher as a result of the decisions last night,” said Simon French, the Panmure Liberum, Simon Fernish, said:

Trump inherited an expanded economy with Wall Street, backed by a predicament that his agenda in abolishing the restrictions imposed on GDP to cancel the restrictions. Instead, expectations have taken a sharp turn to the worse because the volatile approach of the president in commercial policy prompted companies to postpone investment decisions.

After the Trump tariff was announced, the dollar fell by 1.7 percent against a basket of trading partners by early Thursday afternoon, reflecting the growing concern about growth prospects in the United States.

The economic impact on the United States will significantly depend on the amount of the package that actually enters, the extent of the speed of communication with the elements as a result of negotiations with the partners, and how monetary policy in the United States responds to a set of increased inflation and decreasing growth.

Stephen Plitz, an economist in Ts Lombard, said that the imposition of definitions “is not a moderate stagnation, as this is a turning point that results from stagnation-if this tariff remains in place.”

The predictors warned that the strike of the American economy is from The new Trump tariff It will be achieved through a number of channels. Although companies will not pass 100 percent of the additional costs of families, American consumers will fail to escape from the full range of tariffs. During the last commercial war of Trump in 2018, about 60 percent of the US temporary tariff was transferred by 20 percent on the washing machines imported to consumers, analysts.

James Knightley, the American economist in Eng, estimated that the Trump package could add $ 1350 of additional costs to each American, depending on the degree of success by companies to its consumers.

Mark Gianoni, the economist in Barclays, said that the declaration of a long -awaited mutual tariff for the American president indicates an increase in the rates of tariffs weighted to about 23 percent. As a result, “basic price inflation (consumer prices) expected to exceed 4 percent this year, the real GDP for a decrease, and the unemployment rate for more height.”

He expected that the American economy would imitate 0.1 percent yearly in the last three months of 2025, “consistent with stagnation”, and the unemployment rate rises to an increase of 4.6 percent by the fourth quarter.

“If there is no decline, the markets will be the American recession. If there is a decline, the markets will assume that growth will be weakened,” said Paul Donovan, UBS.

With inflation higher than the Federal Reserve goal by 2 percent this year, the central bank faces a difficult task in maintaining price growth in the examination at a time of growing inflation. The Federal Reserve should also do this while facing invitations to expand the slower growth resulting from the increasing trade war.

The confidence of work has already suffered due to the fluctuation of Trump’s commercial policies, and the uncertainty will continue to invest amid a period of lengthy negotiations with the American partners who will be raised now.

The predictions collected in March have suggested that the American trade investment will rise by only 1.9 percent this year, a decrease from more than 2.5 percent to January.

Analysts said that the chances of revenge by American trading partners would harm external sales by American exporters. If sales continued in stock markets that caused Trump’s ads in the coming days, this will affect the feeling of morale.

“Definitions will negatively affect the economy by raising import prices temporarily, which reduces the ability of the Federal Reserve to reduce policy prices, reduce companies’ profits and investment, increase economic uncertainty, tighten financial conditions, and force other countries to take revenge on American exports,” said Matt Jerkin, the chief strategy in the field of research in the field of BCA.

The predictors have already reduced their expectations for the growth of the United States, heading to the Trump tariff, as the Federal Reserve and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development between institutions that reduced the expectations of GDP growth and warned of high inflation.

The Atlanta tracking device, which feeds on GDP, pointed to an annual decrease of 1.4 percent in the first quarter, which was modified to the effect of large gold flows in the United States.

Also, the feelings between families wither. The consumer confidence index in the conference council decreased by 7.2 points to 92.9 in March, the lowest level since January 2021, when some friendly restrictions were still valid.

The consumer expectation index, based on the short -term consumer expectations, business, and labor market conditions, decreased to 65.2 in March, the lowest level in 12 years, and much less than the 80 threshold that usually indicates stagnation forward.

Neil said that the question now is whether it is whether hundreds of billions of dollars in additional tariff revenues that Trump will be used to reduce the deficit or injection into the economy in the form of tax cuts.

He said that if it was used to pay the budget deficit, the American economy would be “lucky to avoid stagnation.” “If it is returned to consumers through other tax discounts, economic growth may not suffer very badly.”

But the impact of definitions on the growth of the United States will also be highly dependent on the extent of Trump’s delay or the “mutual” element requires definitions as traditional partners such as the European Union to the ease of the intensity of measures through negotiation.

While the 10 % basic tariff will apply to imports from all countries except Canada and Mexico as of April 5, the additional tariff, which is calculated by returning to the bilateral trade deficit, will enter into force later, on April 9. The fact that it was organized separately, there is room to negotiate the last component.

The United States has now faced “fears in the near -term of low production, high unemployment, high inflation and stressful financial markets,” said Knightley in Eng. “The main question is that Donald Trump’s round is reverse if the economic pain becomes too much?”