Will the Waters Pin Treaty affect Pakistan?

Will India be able to stop the Sind River and two tributaries from flowing to Pakistan?

This is the question of many minds, after India has suspended a major treaty that controls the water exchange of six rivers in the basin of the bond between the two countries, after Tuesday Terrible In Kashmir, the Indian director.

The Waters Treaty in 1960 (IWT) survived two wars between nuclear competitors and considered an example of a cross -border water management.

The comment is among several steps that India has taken against Pakistan, accused of supporting terrorism across the border – a charge that Islamabad denied categorically. It also retreated with mutual measures against Delhi, and said that stopping the flow of water “would actually be a war.”

The Treaty is devoted to the three eastern rivers – Ravi, Bez, Sutlig – from the basin of the bond to India, while 80 % of the three western – Endos, Jillum and Chainab – to Pakistan.

Conflicts erupted in the past, with Pakistan objected to some electrical energy and water infrastructure projects in India, on the pretext that it would reduce rivers flows and violate the treaty. (More than 80 % of agriculture in Pakistan and about a third of the hydroelectric energy depend on the INDUS basin.)

Meanwhile, India was pushing to review and modify the treaty, noting that the needs change – from irrigation and drinking water to hydroelectric energy – in light of factors such as climate change.

Over the years, Pakistan and India have followed legal methods of competing under the treaty in the World Bank.

But this is the first time that either side has declared a comment – especially, which is the upstream country, India, which gives it a geographical advantage.

But what does the comment really mean? Can India retreat or convert the endos of the endos basin, and deprive Pakistan of the lifeline? Is it even able to do this?

Experts say it is almost impossible for India to break tens of billions of cubic meters of water from western rivers during high flow periods. It lacks both the infrastructure for the huge storage and the wide channels needed to convert such folders.

“The infrastructure of India is mostly the hydroelectric energy factories that do not need a tremendous storage,” said Hymancho Thacar, regional water resources expert in South Asia on dams, rivers and individuals.

This hydroelectric energy plant uses the power of running water to rotate the turbines and generate electricity, without closing large amounts of water.

Indian experts say that insufficient infrastructure has prevented India from fully benefiting from its 20 % share of Gilum, Chinab and Sundus water under the treaty – a major reason they argue in building storage structures, which oppose Pakistan, quoting the provisions of the treaty.

Experts say India can now adjust the current infrastructure or build a new structure for a decline or transform more water without informing Pakistan.

“On the contrary, India will not now be asked to share its project documents with Pakistan.”

But challenges such as difficult terrain and protests within India themselves on some of its projects mean that building water infrastructure in the Indus basin has not moved quickly enough.

After an militant attack in Kashmir, the Indian director in 2016, Indian Ministry of Water Resources officials told the BBC They were to build many dams and water storage projects in the bond basin.

Although there is no official information about the status of these projects, the sources say that progress is limited.

Some experts say that if India begins to control the flow through the current and potential infrastructure, Pakistan may feel the influence during the drought season, when the availability of water is already in its lowest level.

“The most urgent concern is what is happening in the dry season – when flows throughout the basin are lower, and the timing becomes more important,” wrote Hassan F Khan, a professor of urban environmental policy and environmental studies at the University of Tats. dawn newspaper.

“This is where the absence of the treaty restrictions can begin more severe.”

The treaty requires that India share hydrological data with Pakistan – necessary to predict and plan irrigation for irrigation, hydroelectric energy and drinking water.

Pradib Kumar Saxina, a former IWT Commissioner in India for more than six years, told India News Agency that the country can now stop sharing flood data with Pakistan

The area is harmful to floods during the seasonal wind season, which begins in June and continues until September. But the Pakistani authorities said that India was already sharing very limited hydrological data.

“India was sharing only about 40 % of the data even before the latest announcement,” Shiraz Maimon, the former additional commissioner at the Indus Treaty, told BBC URDU.

Another issue that appears every time there is tension related to water in the region is if the upstream country can “weapons” water against the estuary country.

This is often called a “water bomb”, where the country can temporarily destroy the water and then suddenly release it, without warning, causing huge damage towards the river course.

Can India do that?

Experts say India will first risk dumping its lands because its dams are far from the Pakistani border. However, silt can now be wiped from its tanks without prior warning – it is likely that it causes damage towards the river course in Pakistan.

Himalayas, such as a bond, carries high levels of silt, which accumulate quickly in dams and bishops. The sudden flow of this silt can cause significant damage in the direction of the estuary.

There is a larger picture: India is in the direction of the course of China in the Brahmabutra Basin, and the bond is established in Tibet.

In 2016, after India warned that “blood and water do not flow together” in the wake of an militant attack in Kashmir, the Indian director, China prevented Rawafid from Yarlung Tsangpo – which becomes Brahmaputra in northeastern India – as part of the aquaculture project.

After building many hydroelectric energy plants in Tibet, China has green lighting, which will be the largest dam in the world in the bottom areas of Yarlung Tsangpo.

Beijing claims the minimum environmental impact, but India fears that China will give great control over the flow of the river.