Will Israel back down from the terms of the ceasefire in Lebanon? | Israel attacks Lebanon

Confirming the findings of many observers, the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom says that Israel may decide to remain in southern Lebanon after the 60-day withdrawal period specified in the ceasefire.

Failure to withdraw within 60 days would be another violation of the US-France-backed ceasefire agreement reached on November 27 between Lebanon and Israel.

Israel has violated the agreement hundreds of times.

But what does Israel’s failure to withdraw from southern Lebanon after this sixty-day period mean? Here’s what you need to know.

What is happening?

Since the ceasefire, Hezbollah has stopped firing missiles at Israel, and Israel has stopped the continuous bombing of the suburbs of Beirut and the eastern and southern Bekaa Valley.

But Israeli forces are still in the south, bombing and demolishing homes and other infrastructure.

They also prevented people from returning to their homes in the south, opened fire on Lebanese citizens, and killed at least 33 Lebanese residents in the past month.

Israel is supposed to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon within 60 days, starting on November 27, to replace them with UNIFIL forces, followed by the Lebanese army.

But Israel now claims that Hezbollah’s extensive weapons in the south and its reconstruction efforts may prompt it to “reconsider” the withdrawal timetable.

What will happen if they don’t keep their promise?

nothing.

There is no mechanism to enforce the ceasefire agreement other than the resumption of hostilities.

Sources at a Western embassy told Al Jazeera that the only guarantees of implementation are American promises that Israel will abide by.

Hezbollah could ostensibly resume firing rockets at Israel, but it is unlikely to want to re-engage.

Hezbollah had previously responded to Israeli violations with Launching a warning missile At a military site in the Kfar Shuba hills, it fell on December 2 in an open area, resulting in no casualties.

Israel responded by killing nine people in Lebanon.

What are the conditions for a ceasefire?

Israel is scheduled to withdraw all its forces from southern Lebanon within 60 days, and Hezbollah will move its military infrastructure north of the Litani River with the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon.

What about all the southerners who want to return home?

In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire agreement, people left the temporary shelters – most of which were set up in schools across the country – that had housed them for more than two months.

Workers at one of the shelters that Al Jazeera visited in Sidon, southern Lebanon, said that by ten o’clock in the morning on the day of the ceasefire, all the displaced had left and returned to their homes.

But many have not returned to their homes yet.

On the second day of the ceasefire, the Israeli military spokesman announced in Arabic that the entire south had become… Restricted area.

Some people say they visited their villages on the first day of the ceasefire, but were then prevented from returning.

Many southerners either live in villages as close as possible to their villages or reside with their families in areas that the Israelis do not occupy or prevent people from entering.

What else happened?

On Christmas Day, Israel launched raids in the Bekaa Valley between the towns of Talia and Hazin in the Baalbek region.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for the formation of a committee to monitor the ceasefire to pressure Israel to respect the terms of the ceasefire, but its impact has been minimal so far.

Israel not only violated the ceasefire by continuing the attack, but also penetrated deep into Lebanese territory.

On December 26, Israeli forces advanced as far as Wadi al-Hujair, eight kilometers (five miles) from the UN-drawn Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel.

What is UNIFIL doing about it?

UNIFIL issued a statement on 26 December, calling for an end to “actions that threaten the fragile cessation of hostilities.”

He urged “the timely withdrawal of Israeli forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, as well as the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which stipulates that Hezbollah will move its forces north of the Litani River and Israel below the Blue Line.”

UNIFIL also expressed its “concern over the continued destruction” by Israeli forces “of residential areas, agricultural lands and road networks in southern Lebanon.”