Why will the United States lose against China

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“Liberation Day” in Donald Trump The “mutual definitions” are supposed to be against the rest of the world – It can be said that the proposals of the most strange trade policy ever – after a hasty decline under the fire from the market, turned into a trade war with China. This may be (or, perhaps) what was dedicated from the start. So, can Trump win this war against China? In fact, can the United States, as it is now after Trump’s second coming, can succeed in its broader competition with China? The answers are “no”. This is not because China is invincible, far from it. This is because the United States gets rid of all the assets it needs if it is possible to maintain its position in the world against the huge power, ability and designer like China.

“Commercial Wars are good and easy to win,” Trump to publish In 2018, as a general leader, this is wrong: commercial wars hurt both sides. A deal may be reached that makes both sides better than before. Most likely, any deal will make one side better than before and the other is worse. This last type of deal is, most likely, what Trump hopes to appear: will win the United States; China will lose.

Currently, the United States imposes a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports, while China imposes a 125 percent tariff on the United States. China has restricted “rare land” exports To the United States. This is very high, in fact heavy, barriers against trade. This seems to be a “Mexican confrontation”, which cannot be won, among the great powers.

One is given to understand that the American plan (if there is one) is to “persuade” commercial partners to impose severe barriers on imports from China in exchange for a favorable deal on trade (and perhaps in other areas, such as security) with the United States. Is this result reasonable? no.

One of the reasons is that China also has strong cards. Many important forces are already trade with China more than the United States: these include Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. Yes, the United States is a more important export market than China for many important countries, partly due to the trade deficit that Trump complains about. But China is also an important market for many. Moreover, China is a source of basic imports, which cannot be easily replaced. Imports are, after all, the purpose of trade.

Above all, the United States became unreliable. “Transactions” to us is one always searching for a better deal. No sane country should bet on its future on this partner, especially against China. Trump’s treatment in Canada was the decisive moment. The Canadians responded by re -election of the liberals. Will Trump learn about this? Can the tiger change its locations? This is who is. He is also a man who elected the US voters twice. Moreover, China’s breaking will be risky: China will not forget and it is unlikely to forgive it.

Not at least, China believes that its people can bear economic pain better than Americans. Moreover, though, the trade war is primarily shocking the demand, while for the United States, it is mainly shocking the supply. It is easier to replace the missing demand from the loss of supply.

In short, the United States will not get the deals it seems to be looking for and the victory over the China you hope for. It is hypothetical that, since this is clear to the White House, Trump will partially retreat at least from his commercial wars, and declares victory, while moving in another direction.

However, this does not change the fact that the United States is already competing with China for global influence. Unfortunately, the United States that many want to do well in this is not this we.

Moreover, the United States in Trump will not wear well. Its population is a quarter of China. Its economy is of the same size, because it is more productive. Its influence, cultural, intellectual and political, remains much larger than China because its ideals and ideas are more attractive. The United States managed to create strong alliances with similar countries in thinking that enhances this effect. In short, it was inherited and based on huge origins.

Now, think about what is happening under the Trump system: Attempts to transform the rule of law into a tool for revenge; Dismantling the US government; Convisles with laws that are the basis of the legitimate government; The attacks on scientific research and The independence of the great American universities; Wars on reliable statistics; Hostility towards immigrants (And not only illegal), although we founded our success in every generation; and The complete shouting of medical science and climate science; Explicit rejection of basic ideas in trade economics; Equal or (much worse than that) Vladimir Putin, the tyrant of Russia, preferred over Volodimir ZelinskiThe leader of the democratic Ukraine; The open contempt of a group of alliances and cooperation institutions on which the United States -built global system is settled. All this at the hands of a political movement that embraced the January 2021 rebellion.

Yes, the global economic system needed to improve. The issue of China is to turn towards growth -led growth. It is also clear that a lot of reform is needed in the United States. However, what is happening now is not a repair, but the ruin has established our success, at home and abroad. It will be difficult to oppose the damage. It will be impossible for people to forget who caused it.

A The United States, which is trying to replace the rule of law and the constitution with a corrupt Crohnic capitalism, will not outperform China. Pure transactions will not receive themselves with the comfort of its allies. The world needs the United States to compete and cooperate with China. Unfortunately, this United States will fail to do this well.

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