Why Trump strikes China on trade

Suddenly, Donald Trump’s trade war is more severe.

Instead of a battle on all fronts against the world, this now looks like a battle on the familiar lands Trump: America against China.

The temporary stop for 90 days on the upper “revenge” definitions imposed on dozens of countries leaves a comprehensive global tariff of 10 %.

But China-which ships everything from iPhone to children’s games and represents about 14 % of all US imports-was distinguished for a more severe treatment of a water rate of 125 %.

Trump said that the increase was due to Beijing’s willingness to take revenge on her tax by 84 % on American goods, a step that the president described as “lack of respect.”

But for the politician who fought on his way to the White House on the back of the China Anti -message, there is much more than that of simple revenge.

For Trump, it comes to the incomplete works of this first chapter in his position.

“We did not have time to do the right thing, which we are doing now,” he told reporters.

The goal is no less than the increase in the world’s global trade system in China that focuses on the world’s factory, as well as the widespread opinion that was supported by – the idea that more of this trade was in itself, a good thing.

To understand the centrality of this for the US President’s thinking, you need to return to time before anyone thinks about this as a possible candidate for the position, not to mention the possible winner.

In 2012, when I first informed Shanghai – commercial capital in China – almost every person was seen by every person – international business leaders, Chinese officials, foreign governments, commercial delegation, foreign and economic correspondents who have learned – that it is not thinking.

It strengthened global growth, as it provides countless supplies of cheap commodities, increasingly enriching the Chinese army of factories in global supply chains, and providing profitable opportunities for multinationals that sell their goods to the newly raw middle classes.

Within a few years of arrival, China has exceeded the United States to become the world’s largest market for Rolls Royce, General Motors and Volkswagen.

There was a deeper justification, too.

As China increases, so the theory went, the Chinese people will start demanding political reform.

Their spending habits will also help move to the consumer community.

But the first of these aspirations has never happened, as the ruling Communist Party in China only tightened its grip on power.

The second did not happen quickly enough, as China still depends only on exports, but it plans publicly to become more dominant ever.

Its famous political scheme – published in 2015, titled Made In China 2025 – developed a huge vision supported by the country to become a global leader in a number of major manufacturing sectors, from space space to shipping to electric cars.

Thus, after only one year, the complete political unknown began from the abroad of the American president, which made the issue over and over the path of the campaign that the rise of China had led to the US economy cavity, a decrease in Resttalt and costs blue -colored workers their livelihoods and dignity.

Trump’s first trade war was war and destroyed consensus. His successor, President Joe Biden, kept many of his definitions on China in his place.

However, although it undoubtedly caused some pain in China, it has not done much to change the economic model.

China now produces 60 % of the world’s electric cars – a large percentage of them made from its local brands – and 80 % of the batteries in which they work.

So, Trump has now returned with this escalation on the drawings.

It can be said that it would be the biggest shock that has ever delivered to the global trading system in force, had it not been for the non -other tariff measures that the American president brought out in recent days.

What happens after that depends on two main questions.

First, whether China is taking this offer to negotiate.

Secondly, it is assuming that it is in the end, whether China is ready to make the type of major concessions that America is looking for, including a full reform of its economic model.

When you are answered, the first thing we say is that we are in a completely non -serial area, so we must be careful of anyone who says he knows how it is likely to interact with Beijing.

But there are definitely reasons to be careful.

China’s vision of its economic power – which depends on strong exports and the local protected market – is now closely related to its idea of ​​national renewal and the same party system.

Her narrow control of the field of information means that its barriers are unlikely to fall in front of American technology companies, for example.

But there is a third question, a question to answer America.

Does the United States still believe in free trade? Donald Trump often suggests that customs tariffs are a good thing, not only as a way to achieve an end, but as a goal in itself.

He talks about taking advantage of a protective barrier to America, in order to stimulate local investment, encourage American companies to restore foreign supply chains home, and raise tax revenues.

And if Beijing believes that this is actually the primary purpose of definitions, he may decide that there is nothing to negotiate anyway.

Instead of defending the idea of ​​economic cooperation, the world’s largest powers may find themselves detained in a battle for the winning economic superiority.

If so, this would really represent the destruction of ancient consensus, and a completely different future, perhaps very dangerous.