Why can the winner of the election of Canada be determined by Greater Toronto

It was one of the results of the Rapid Reconnaissance Party, which had been in the past sufficient contract. But then, there was almost unimaginable: a defeat in special elections in the center of the city of Toronto, the party’s electoral castle for a long time.

Many analysts believe that the defeat last year sparked a series of events that led to the resignation of Justin Trudeau as prime minister and federal elections to be held on Monday.

Toronto voters were vital to keeping Mr. Trudeau and liberals in power through three elections. So the loss of the Toronto region – which was held by a prominent liberal for 28 years – for the conservatives was an amazing blow and worse in the general elections.

Now, with all 343 seats in the House of Commons that will be occupied in the general elections, it is likely to determine the 56th regions in the Greater Toronto region, which is loosely defined by what will direct Canada during a commercial battle with the United States that can deal with a devastating economic blow.

Conservatives were sorting in the decisive Toronto region, with about 7 million people, before President Trump raised the electoral scene by imposing a tariff on Canada.

Senior competitors to become The next leader of the country They are Prime Minister Mark Carne, from the liberals and Pierre Bveyvier, a conservative.

These voters who can go in any direction

While the ten seats in Toronto were not fertile ground for conservatives, despite the special electoral result, voters in 32 provinces in rapidly growing societies surrounding the city are not particularly associated with any of the main party and getting the seizure.

“I will not say ideologically that they are greatly conservative,” said David Coleto, president of Abacus Data, a polling company. “But this left center, or the leftist activist who we see in the urban city center-this does not exist.”

In the past, Mr. Coletto said, many voters outside the liberal Toronto won the federal elections, but they will vote for the candidates from the conservative parties in the province’s votes in Ontario.

This confirms the importance of the region on the total result, it is expected that Mr. Carney will spend most of the last weekend of the campaign in the Greater Toronto.

It is important to attract immigrant voters

Many ethnic societies, including some with a large number of new immigrants, dominate some of the societies surrounding Toronto, from South Asian and Italian northwest of the city, to Chinese societies and other Asian societies to the northeast.

While immigrants cannot vote until they obtain citizenship, all major political parties have long focused on flirting with their societies.

The Federal Labor Squad on intelligence and security threats for elections said that India, China, Pakistan and Iran are likely to target these societies with disinformation campaigns related to elections.

She said this week that China is seeking to transfer Chinese -speaking Canadians against a conservative candidate in the Toronto region, a critic of the border on democracy in Hong Kong.

Dennis Bilon, a political scientist at York University in Toronto, said that some of the leaders of these ethnic groups can be important political influences.

The cost of living and home prices are concerns

Mr. Colto said that the cost of living is a great concern for voters in societies outside Toronto, adding that many residents live in these largely because they are because they are House costs cannot be affected In the city or in the nearby suburbs.

Home prices in Toronto increased by 44 percent since 2020.

Until the beginning of this year, I did this for Mr. Poilievre, who regularly blamed Mr. Trudeau for inflation and high home prices.

Professor Bilon said that many voters were simply bad from the liberals after a decade and a feeling that the country was heading directly.

Both parties promise to help Canadians who are financially exposed by providing tax exemptions for some home buyers.

Trump’s tariff, a new leader brings a reflection

Mr. Coleto said that his poll indicates that the liberal is now leading by 15 percentage points in Toronto, at eight percentage points in the largest largest Toronto.

the The liberals gained strength In recent weeks, while conservatives and some smaller parties have lost land, there was an important factor that was the economic attacks of Mr. Trump against Canada and his conversation with the inclusion of the country.

Opinion polls have constantly showed that the Canadians believe that Mr. Carney, a former Central Bank, has experience in dealing with previous financial crises, can do better work than Mr. Poilievre in dealing with Mr. Trump.

American definitions, including vehicles and car parts, may have an impartial impact on the Greater Toronto region, which is the home of many auto parts makers, as well as vehicle assembly plants in General Motors and Stellantis, the owner of Chrysler.

Analysts said that the definitions offered by Mr. Trump may play a major role in determining who will get this deep well of Canadian voters.

Mr. Colto said that winning a national elections without doing what is fine in the Greater Toronto, “You need to win everything except” that region. “This is impossible in a different and different country like Canada.”