The United States is not in stagnation – yet.
But with high threats Definitions For American imports, uncertainty in politics, collective deportation, and the reduction of the government competence section (DOGE), some economic observers believe that the possibilities are increasing.
“We have a problem in the event of real uncertainty, it will be difficult to fix that,” former Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Samarz He said In an interview on the Wall Street week on Bloomberg TV with David Westin.
“We look at slowing down to what was expected, almost, and seriously, about 50 % of the possibility of stagnation.”
Senior economists in JP Morgan Bruce Kamman Expected The opportunity of 40 % of the American recession this year.
“If we will continue in this way, it would not be more than a non -business -friendly sabotage policies, I think the risks on the recession will rise,” he told reporters.
From the financial manager, which the polls included in the most recent CNBC CFO, the majority (95 %) said that government policy affects its ability to make commercial decisions. Three quarters expected Economy to enter the recession in the last half of this year or in 2026.
In the United States, the recession is officially announced Dated Often retroactively – by the committee for the Economic Research of Economic Research (NBER).
The Committee defines the recession as “a significant decrease in economic activity that is spread throughout the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
In the wider practice, two consecutive quarterly from the growth of the GDP (GDP) indicates the recession.
Although there was no official announcement, there are three warning signs indicating a possible stagnation:
The return curve indicates stagnation. One of the recessions is when the return on the treasury is 10 years old He falls Less than the Treasury Bill for three months.
This happened in late 2022 and continued until late 2024, and Come back In late February – the return spread between the two is still negative.
The time from the time of this position until the recession can be different, but it is a strong indication of the recession in Next to 16 to 20 months.
The leading economic indicators indicate slowdown. Another indicator is the main economic conference index (LEI). This index He falls20in % January 20.) In February for the third month in a row. The Conference Council expects that GDP growth will slow down.
Data and feeling transform negatively. Consumer confidence decreases, modern data for Retail sales It was weak and the Federal Reserve Bank The index of uncertainty in economic policy High. Executive chiefs are more pessimistic, consumers retreat and “”Workers feel nervous“According to the Wall Street Journal, the Federal Reserve for the prediction model in Atlanta GDP expects GDP to decrease 1.8 % in the first quarter of 2025.
All this talk about stagnation may cause your anxiety. The best way is to be proactive – but not panic.
Building an emergency fund. Prepare for possible difficult times by allocating an emergency box that covers at least three months to a year of expenses, depending on the period you think it may take to get a job if you are pleased. To enhance your savings, investigating a high -use savings account (HISA) or a High -yield savings account.
Pay the debts and avoid unnecessary expenses. A large amount of debt may be a problem if your income decreases or increases daily costs (such as egg prices). Avoid additional financial stress by creating a file budgetAnd reduce spending where you can carefully and weigh the large purchases.
Protect or increase your income. You may want to consider side bustle or second job to bring some additional money.
Talk to Financial advisor On how to maximize your investment performance. Make sure your wallet varies appropriately, including geographically, with exposure to sectors Better performance In stagnation.
Most financial professionals are advised not to try the market time. Multiple studies indicate that staying in the market during retreat leads to better returns in the long run, especially when you use the average cost in dollar-investing the same amount of money in the same securities at regular periods regardless of their prices.
If you are accelerated, talk to your advisor about strategies that may be logical in low years, such as a dung transformation.
You may not have much control if there is a stagnation, but you can take steps to overcome the storm.
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This article only provides information and should not be explained as advice. It is provided without guarantee of any kind.
