What is Vladimir Putin?

After Ukraine agreed to an American unlawful ceasefire proposal for 30 days in its conflict with Russia, Vladimir Putin wore military fatigue and visited the position of command to hear that Moscow was close to the restoration of the entire Corsak region.

Speaking a day next to the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko – who mediated in two failed operations to end Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine a decade ago – the Russian president said that any ceasefire would allow Kiev’s unification simply with the re -assembly of Kiev’s forces exactly as Moscow is approaching their removal from Kursk.

The message from Putin was clear: As its forces advanced through the confrontation line, which is approximately 2000 km, Russia has no reason to stop fighting unless its goals are achieved through other means.

The qualifying support that Putin provided to Donald Trump’s proposal for the ceasefire is swinging a set of maximum demands that have been unchanged since the Russian President ordered the invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

With Trump pushing for a quick end to the war, Putin’s challenge is to exploit the battlefield in Russia to the maximum extent with it while preserving the United States and the satisfaction that rapprochement with the US President is still on the right track.

“There is nothing that Trump can offer reasonably that would make Russia be abandoned in Ukraine. But if you do not have to say” certainly no “when there are consequences to do so, why are you?” Said Samuel Charab, chief political scientist at Rand.

For the Russians, the leverage is to maintain continuous fighting during their conversation. For this reason they want to link any discussion about stopping hostilities with a broader political process. “

The recent brief suspension of American military assistance and intelligence participation in Ukraine helped after Kiev agreed to the Trump ceasefire this week, materially in Russia, in what was already its strongest point in this war.

It seems that the progress in the Kursk region, where Ukraine seized more than 1,000 square kilometers from Russia last summer, has especially encouraged the Russian president.

Speaking with Lukashenko, Putin indicated that Russia will demand that Ukraine end for forced mobilization and the delivery of the total of Kursk, including parts that Russia is still unable to restore.

He claimed that the remaining Ukrainian unity in Corsak was almost surrounded and will soon face a choice between “surrender or death”.

Kiev’s forces are retreating from the front lines in Kursk, but they still control a small piece of land between the Russian town of Sodza and the Ukrainian borders.

However, on Friday, Trump seemed to support Putin’s demands for the dilemma of Ukraine in the region.

“At this particular moment, thousands of Ukrainian forces are completely surrounded by the Russian army, and in a very bad and weak position,” the US President wrote on the social truth platform. “I strongly asked Putin to spare their lives.”

Trump added that the United States’ discussions with the Russian President the previous day were “very good and fruitful.”

The Kremlin expects that the West will stop providing Kiev with weapons and training its forces, with any operation ceasefire mechanism that will take time to develop – not the least of which is because the Russian forces are being attacked.

Alexander Gabov, director of the Carnegie Russia Center in Berlin, said that for Putin, the ceasefire for 30 days is “a trap.”

He said: “There is an opportunity that Russia can push Ukraine to a corner in the battlefield to the point where they must make some uncomfortable decisions.” “Russia knows that Trump wants a quick peace, but it cannot let Ukraine from the hook.”

He added that during a ceasefire, the Ukrainians could make a deal with the Europeans about bringing the peacekeeping forces. “Russia will face a dilemma whether they will attack them and blame the ceasefire, or just to swallow it and allow Ukraine to enhance its position.”

Ukraine President Voludmir Zelinski said that Putin’s conditions amount to the refusal of Trump’s offer without saying this.

“Of course, Putin is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and continue to kill the Ukrainians,” said Zellinski. “Putin does this often – he does not say” no “explicit, but he pulls things and makes reasonable solutions impossible.”

Putin’s stubbornness will test Washington to pressure Russia even because it seeks to achieve a historical rapprochement with the Kremlin.

Trump has threatened to impose tougher sanctions if Russia refuses to offer, but the United States has already made it clear that it will not accept Ukraine in NATO and will require Kiev to make regional concessions – two of Putin’s basic demands for a wider settlement.

However, the possibility of reconciliation with the United States may give Putin an additional incentive to conclude a deal. “It is clear that Russia does not want to return to being the main obstacle,” said Charab.

The United States and Russia tried to stay in a message even after Putin expressed his clear objections to Trump’s proposal.

Mike Waltz, Trump’s National Security Adviser, indicated on Thursday that at least, Ukraine will have to hand over the partially occupied Danpas region.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, said in his saying that there were “cautious optimism”, adding that Putin gave Trump’s envoy Steve Whitov “additional information and signals.”

Although previous US sanctions have so far failed to transform Putin’s position on the conflict, the White House can still make the war more painful to Russia, according to Andre Kulsnikov, a political world based in Moscow.

He said that the American pressure on oil exports in Russia or global oil prices can reduce the revenues of the Moscow budget, forcing the Kremlin to search for alternative financing.

But Trump’s passion for making concessions to Russia, in the hope of obtaining a quick deal, was increasing in victory, even amid widespread fatigue in the war, analysts at the new European Strategy Center wrote in a brief conference paper.

They wrote that footage of the battlefield successes encouraged the pro -war feelings, while Russia’s pride in the war economy has created industrial and soldiers with interest refusing to maintain the fight.

Putin seemed to play in this feeling last week, when the mother of a Russian soldier who died in the fighting of Russia told him, “She must go to the end (and not make any concessions.” Putin replied: “We are not planning to do this.”

She participated in additional reports from Anastasia Stone in Berlin, Fabrice Debrez and Bulina Ivanova in Kiev; Stephen Bernard’s maps fee