Sir Kerr Starmer pledged spending on spending on the “broken” and “inaccurate” health care system, which costs the government 65 billion pounds per year It is on the right track to hit 100 billion pounds by 2030.
Drivers behind the sharp rise in the advantages of deficit and deficit in recent years are complex and sometimes intuitive. Experts urged the government to act with caution to avoid unintended consequences that have been subjected to previous reform attempts.
“The spending of increased disability in the field of disability does not mean that spending on social welfare is out of control,” said Ben Jajjar, a professor of social sciences and health at King’s College College in London. But he added: “It is amazing that despite all the discounts in the past decade, social welfare spending in 2024 is greater than 2007.”
Most policy specialists agree that the high demands of deficit and deficit can be attributed to three main reasons: financial incentives that push people to search for higher levels of payments, the high number of people who suffer from mental health conditions since the epidemic, insufficient support and incentives to obtain people who are able to work.
The major cuts of social welfare spending have become a major ambition for the work government The exacerbation of financial expectations Adviser Rachel Reeves faces before her spring statement on March 26. It is also under pressure to free more money for defensive spending.
But Backbench Labor MPS and cabinet ministers threaten to rebel against some of the most severe proposals to restrict the benefits of deficit.
The data indicates that the UK is more west when it comes to the sharp rise in people who are demanding health benefits, as almost all similar countries have registered a decrease since the epidemic.
About 4 million from the age of 16 to 64 years-one in 10-now claims either disability or deficit benefits, up from 2.8 million in 2019, according to the Institute of Financial Studies.
More than half of this height stems from increased claims related to mental health or behavioral conditions; 44 per cent of all demands cite mental health, such as their initial condition.
There is increasing evidence that mental health conditions In height. NHS England data shows the number of people in contact with mental health services, which increased by about fifty years to 2023-24.
Experts indicate that demanding people often have multiple conditions: four fifths of the people who were registered as suffering from the issue of mental health in assessing the work capacity also mentioned a problem in physical health, according to the Joseph Runthry Foundation, a charity.
Another basic change is demographic. About the fifth increase in recent years can be explained by the high retirement age in the state and aging, which increases the number of sick people who fall in the “age age” category.
However, experts agree that these factors alone do not explain the extent of height – it is also possible that there will be harmful incentives in playing.
In 2023, the record rate of unemployment for individual adults reached a 40 -year low of real value, according to official briefing.
According to JRF, at least one adult needs 120 pounds per week to cover the basics such as food, facilities, vital home appliances and travel, except for rent. But the basic rate of comprehensive credit provides only 85 pounds per week.
Most of the advantages of work also require those who demanded to prove that they are actively looking for work, with penalties if they miss meetings or fail to prove that they are looking for work.
GEIGER from Kcl notes that people “often feel terrifying from falling” and are afraid of the pressure of regular official examinations. This causes many to search for the high rate of benefits that are paid without conditions.
There is little evidence that the process became easier: the share of the plaintiffs who obtained personal independence payments after the initial evaluation reached 52 percent in 2019-20 and 54 percent in 2023-24.
But experts say that the regime prevents people from finding work. “If you take steps towards work, this will take place against you,” said Ayla Ozmen, director of politics and campaigns at Welfare Charity Z2K.
“While people should not be punished in principle, in practice,” she said, noting that nearly 90 percent of the demands who dealt with Z2K said they were afraid to search for work because of the risk of losing their health benefits.

There has also been a sharp decrease in the number of cases reassessing cases since the epidemic, which reduces the government’s ability to determine the people whose condition improved.
Re -evaluation is the largest driver for people who get benefits. Louise Murphy, the major economist at the decision -making organization, said there was a lack of concerted thinking about how to help those demanding the most generous benefits at work.
The Learning and Labor Foundation, a research group, suggested providing a “interest passport” that would allow those demanding to return automatically to their previous state of entitlement if they leave work within six months.
He also called for an increase in the current work allowance – which allows those demanding the benefits of the inability to do some work without withdrawing their benefits – from eight hours to 16 hours a week.
Starmer explained that he intends to reduce spending significantly on health benefits, with the aim of providing about 5 billion pounds annually by the end of Parliament, with measures to focus mainly on the PIP.
Many policy specialists have warned of sharp changes in eligibility, noting that they can create distorted incentives in other areas of the system and often lead to less savings than expected in the first place.
When the government of the Conflict Coalition announced the transition from the disability allowance to PIP in 2012, it claimed that it would generate about 1.4 billion pounds at the end of Parliament. In fact, this step provided only 100 million pounds, according to the budget responsibility office accounts.
Many argue that one of the ways to improve the current system is to restore a balance between the difference between the basic rate of global credit and higher levels of regular benefits – but this will not generate significant savings.
One of the costs of saving PIP is, so it is not in line with inflation, a step that former conservative adviser George Osborne believes is a very far move. Another is to impose more strict civil standards, to exclude some cases that are less severe, including some mental health. If cases are reduced by 12 percent, or 620,000 claims, it will generate 5 billion pounds in savings by 2030.
Murphy said: “Saving as much as this government wants from the benefits system will be really difficult,” Murphy said. “Reducing eligibility means that you are focusing great losses between a fixed group of people. This is a big thing to do.”
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