What does the upside-down Middle East mean for Trump and US allies in the Gulf?

When Donald J. Trump was the last president of the United States, the wealthy kingdoms of the Persian Gulf had a mostly harmonious relationship with his administration. As Mr. Trump prepares to return to the White House, the leaders of those Gulf states generally welcomed his return.

But this time, the Gulf states and Mr. Trump appear to disagree on several key issues, such as Israel and Iran. Disagreements over energy policies may also be a source of friction.

It is unlikely that there will be major tensions or ruptures with US allies in the Gulf. But Mr. Trump will face a region that has undergone radical transformations since Israel launched its military campaign The war on Gaza In response to Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023Israeli authorities say that about 1,200 people were killed and about 250 hostages were taken.

The war in Gaza, in which at least 45,000 people were killed, according to health officials in the Strip, has spread throughout the region. In Lebanon, the Iranian-backed armed group Hezbollah has been subjected to an ongoing attack against Israel for more than a year. And in Syria, the rebels He overthrew the regime For Bashar al-Assad.

Now, while Mr. Trump He fills his cabinet Hawks on Iran and staunch defenders of Israel, Gulf leaders have been publicly urging a softer stance on Iran and a tougher stance on Israel.

They also called on the United States to continue its engagement in the region.

For now, the Trump administration seems eager to engage with Gulf powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

In December, Steve Witkoff, whom Trump chose as his envoy to the Middle East, was in the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi, where he was… Attended a Bitcoin conference Along with Eric Trump, the president-elect’s son. He also headed to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Axios I mentioned.

Here’s a closer look at the issues facing Mr. Trump as he navigates an evolving relationship with his traditional allies in the Gulf.

Participation in the Middle East

One of the clearest calls in the Gulf for Mr. Trump to avoid an isolationist agenda came from Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of the Saudi intelligence services.

in An open letter to the US president-elect published in November In The National, an Abu Dhabi-based newspaper, Prince Turki referred to an assassination attempt against Mr. Trump and expressed his belief that “God saved your life” in part so that Mr. Trump could continue the work he had begun in the Middle East. During his first term. That mission, he wrote, was to achieve “Peace, in capital letters.”

During his first term, the Trump administration brokered an agreement Abraham Accordsany Many Arab countries witnessed the establishment of relations with Israel.

A few days later, a similar message was delivered to Prince Turki by Anwar Gargash, an advisor to Prince Turki Sheikh Mohammed bin ZayedThe President of the UAE during a conference in Abu Dhabi.

Gargash said that with the Gulf region becoming an increasingly volatile region, American leadership and partnership remain essential. “We need strong leadership that balances humanitarian concerns and strategic interests,” he said.

Going harder for Israel

Regarding Israel, the most surprising shift in messaging in the Gulf came from the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, the Crown Prince. Speaking at the Arab League summit in Riyadh recently, Prince Mohammed called for the first time an Israeli military campaign in Gaza “genocide”.

Before the outbreak of war in Gaza in October 2023, Saudi Arabia appeared to be on the verge of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel without fulfilling its long-standing precondition for doing so – the creation of a Palestinian state. Such a deal would have reshaped the Middle East.

Under one plan, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in exchange for stronger defense ties with the United States and American support for a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia.

But recent statements by Prince Mohammed indicate that any deals are still a long way off.

In addition to his statement referring to the genocide in Gaza, he also made this clear Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations With Israel until the establishment of the Palestinian state. This remains a distant possibility given the strong opposition to such a state within the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ali Al-Shihabi, a Saudi businessman close to the kingdom’s ruling family, said: “I think the Crown Prince wanted to make his position clear beyond any doubt.”

The United Arab Emirates – one of the signatories to the Abraham Accords – has also indicated a hardline stance towards Israel.

Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told his Israeli counterpart last week that the UAE “will spare no effort in supporting the Palestinians.”

Despite Saudi Arabia’s public position on the status of the normalization agreement, US diplomats have indicated that the Kingdom may be particularly open to moving forward with this agreement under a second Trump presidency – provided a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a concrete commitment by Israel to the normalization agreement. . The road to the Palestinian state.

“All of this is ready to go if the opportunity arises for a ceasefire in Gaza as well as understandings about a path forward for the Palestinians,” outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday. “So, there’s a huge opportunity there.”

Relaxing with Iran?

During Trump’s first term, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supported his administration’s hardline stance on Iran, seeing Tehran as a dangerous competitor in the region.

They cheered when Mr. Trump said The United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran She praised his decision to authorize the assassination Qasem Soleimanithe general who ran Iranian militias and proxy forces across the Middle East, in January 2020.

But the dynamics of the region have changed since Mr. Trump’s first term.

It reached Saudi Arabia and Iran deal In March 2023, this reduced tensions in the Persian Gulf and opened the door to high-level diplomatic contacts.

Bahrain, after years of tension with Iran, has… Initiatives of the Iranian governmentKing Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa said there was “no reason to delay” the resumption of diplomatic relations. The small island kingdom too condemned Israel targeted Iran last October, when a shadow war broke out between the two countries It broke out in public With mutual attacks.

For Saudi Arabia, the goal is clear: to create a stable regional environment conducive to Prince Mohammed’s dream of diversifying the oil-dependent Saudi economy. For Iran, decades of economic and political isolation, combined with growing internal unrest, have made reconciliation with Riyadh a necessity.

There are also signs that Iran may be open to negotiating with Mr. Trump. Many former officials, pundits and newspaper editorials in Iran have done so He publicly called on the government to deal with Mr. Trump.

So far, Trump also seems open, at least, to charting a different course from the “maximum pressure” campaign of his first term. In November, Elon Musk, a close advisor to Trump, spoke: He met with the Iranian ambassador to the United NationsIranian officials said.

“We have to make a deal because the consequences are impossible,” Trump said in September, referring to the threat of Iran seeking nuclear weapons.

Potential frictions on oil

While the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – seem open to this. Mr. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacyThey may find themselves at odds with his economic policies.

His main campaign promise was to boost oil and gas production in the United States, a move that could harm Gulf economies.

If the United States increases oil production, as Mr. Trump has done He pledgedHowever, producers in the Gulf will have less scope to increase production without causing prices to fall.

“Increasing oil exploration and production in the United States will lead to lower prices and put oil-dependent Gulf economies at risk,” Badr Al-Saif, an associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said in an article. Latest report.

Trump is also expected to accelerate liquefied natural gas projects, reverse President Biden’s permit freeze and increase US exports, especially to Europe.

Qatar, one of the largest gas producers along with the United States, is likely to be the most affected, but has so far played down its concerns.