What does strike strikes mean on energy sites for Ukraine and Russia

Russia said it would agree on Limited shooting stop This would stop the attacks on energy infrastructure, and KYIV’s proposal indicated that it is open to it, but it has not officially agreed. The agreement will be the first important step towards eliminating the escalation since the war began on a large scale for more than three years.

Wednesday, Ukraine and Russia The accusations circulating the attacks against energy infrastructure to each other, a day after reporting the proposed agreement, with a highlight of the lack of confidence between the two countries and how any fragile deal will be.

The strikes against energy facilities were a major part of the efforts of both countries to weaken the other. Russia launched repeated attacks on the power network in Ukraine to undermine its war effort by making life as difficult as possible for civilians. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian establishments aim to cut the sprawling oil industry revenues in Russia, which have been used to finance the army in the country.

The strategy behind the attacks

Russia The attack started Energy infrastructure in Ukraine in October 2022, after it became clear that its initial plan to achieve a quick victory failed. Moscow has chosen the war of attrition in which the energy infrastructure in Ukraine has become a major goal.

Ukraine began It targets the energy infrastructure in Russia again and again In early 2024 to try to attach pain in the heart of the Russian economy – the oil and gas industry – and Reducing fuel supplies to her army. Experts say that KYIV was two parts, as experts say: to reduce oil revenues in Russia, and to produce a psychological impact by causing large -scale fires in critical infrastructure facilities.

The Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine were a major part of Moscow’s efforts Bring the country to its knees. Energy experts say that the goal is to strangle the energy resources that feed the economy of Ukraine and ultimately its war effort. But it seems that it also aims to make life unbearable for people – They drowned in cold and darkness – It breaks their spirits.

Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, former president of Umnero, the National Electricity Operator in Ukraine, said that Russia has constantly changed its goals and tactics to undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend the energy system.

Moscow used Complex waves of long -range drones and ballistic missiles To overcome Kyiv air defenses. After Ukraine began strengthening the main sub -stations of electricity with concrete warehouses, Russia has turned into Hit the thermal power plants directly And the attack The lower protection sub -stations connected to nuclear power plants.

Impact on Russia

During the past year, Ukrainian drones flew depth to Russian territory, HoopWarehouses, storage units, pipelines and pumping stations. The attacks were disrupted by oil flows that pass through Russian port oil stations and Droza pipeline, which takes crude to some European countries.

This was threatened to undermine Moscow’s revenues of energy sales abroad. It was not possible to specify the amount of oil revenues in Russia independently in the attacks.

The attacks on oil refineries reduce the country’s refining capacity by approximately 10 percent at one point, According to ReutersWhich the effect of the damage was calculated.

But Russian oil giants I also managed To fix some damage quickly. According to Michael Crutochin, an independent Russian energy analyst who lives in exile in Oslo, the damage to Russian oil refineries “was never decisive.”

Mr. Crotyun said in an interview on a phone that Russia can always redirect raw oil flows away from a damaged refinery because the country has many refineries. Sometimes, refineries had to start producing jet fuel that had more sulfur.

“This is bad for the environment, but fighting aircraft can continue to fly,” said Mr. Crotyoon. He added, however, that the attacks can produce long -term damage, because some parts of the oil refineries may take years to produce and install.

Sergey Facolinko, Carnegie Energy Expert for International Peace, a research group, said that Russian oil companies had to spend more than a billion dollars to repair the damage to Ukrainian attacks.

Impact on Ukraine

Since the fall of 2022, Moscow has repeatedly used drone and missiles to hit the sub -stations that distribute electricity, the power stations it generates, and recently gas facilities.

the Kyiv College for Economics It is estimated that the damage to the energy sector in Ukraine amounted to at least $ 14.6 billion. Several electrical and thermal power plants have been completely destroyed due to the attacks.

By the end of last year, the total power generation capacity in Ukraine decreased to about 22 GB, less than half of the pre -war level, according to Dixie collectionUkrainian Energy Research Organization.

Ukraine’s lack of power forced it to impose Electricity power in the country to relieve pressure on the network. Some days, the neighborhoods in Kiev, the capital, were less than four hours of electricity. Many civilians have resorted to candles to light homes and relied on electric lamps for mobile phones to travel in unwanted streets.

Water pumping systems sometimes failed, making life difficult for citizens as running water flows to their homes. During the first winter of the war, long lines were formed in Wales in Kiev The residents transported water jugs Return to their unregistered apartments.

However, Russia has failed in its attempts to completely collapse the energy system in Ukraine. Ukraine endured the attacksThanks to the western air defenses that enabled them to intercept more Russian missiles, and worked around the clock by engineers to repair vital equipment and Energy saving to the population.

Ukraine also relied on the three operating nuclear power plants, which Russia avoided targeting to prevent a nuclear disaster, to meet up to half of the country’s electricity needs during certain periods.

Who has more to gain?

Experts say it is difficult to determine the country that will get more ceasefire on the attacks targeting the energy infrastructure.

Mr. Kudrytskyi said that a temporary stop will give Ukraine an important time to fix sub -stations and power stations without threatening new strikes.

The ceasefire will also give Ukraine time to renew critical backup stocks, including the value transformer needed to transport electricity from power stations to people’s homes. Ukraine was burned through its stocks in an attempt to replace damaged equipment.

For the Kremlin, the commentary in the Ukrainian attacks means that the war and its effects will appear more far to the Russian audience. Moscow no longer needs to be concerned that such attacks can harm the infrastructure of critical oil.