What caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan? Here’s what we know so far.

Officials are trying to determine the cause of the accident Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash In Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, killing 38 people on board and leaving 29 survivors Speculation is growing that the Russian military He could have played a role in the disaster.

Here’s what we know so far:

How did the plane crash?

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190, was flying from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to the city of Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus region on Wednesday when its course was diverted for reasons that are not yet completely clear.

The plane crashed while trying to reach another airport in Aktau, western Kazakhstan.

Mobile phone footage appears to show the plane making a hard landing before hitting the ground and exploding in a fireball two miles from Aktau Airport.

Pictures from the accident scene show that the back of the plane’s fuselage is still intact after the crash, and it is lying upside down in a field.

The airline said 67 people were on board – 62 passengers and five crew members – and that 38 people died in the crash, but 29 of those on board survived.

Investigators recovered the black boxes, flight data and cockpit voice recorders from the crash site.

Why did the plane change its course?

There were conflicting accounts about why the plane’s pilots diverted the plane.

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rozavyatsia, initially said it appeared the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird collision. Later, Russian and Azerbaijani officials indicated that the plane had been diverted due to fog or bad weather in Grozny. Russia then also said that Ukrainian drones targeting the Grozny region were a factor.

Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that although it was too early to know the cause of the accident, bad weather conditions forced the plane to change its planned route.

He added, “The information available to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to bad weather conditions and headed to Aktau Airport, where it crashed upon landing.”

Dmitry Yadrov, head of Rozavyatsia, said Friday that while the plane was preparing to land in Grozny amid heavy fog, Ukrainian drones were targeting the city, prompting authorities to close the area to air traffic.

Yadrov said that after the captain made two failed attempts to land, he was offered other airports, but decided instead to fly to Aktau in Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea.

What do officials and aviation experts say about the possible cause?

Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia opened investigations into the cause of the accident. The Kremlin urged People should not jump to conclusions.

In a statement on Friday, December 27, Azerbaijan Airlines said that the plane had been subjected to “external physical and technical interference,” but it did not say where it believed the interference came from or provide any other details. It announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.

A US official told CBS News there were early indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have hit the plane in an area where Ukrainian and Russian forces have been exchanging missile and drone fires for months. If that proves true, it would further underscore Russia’s recklessness in its ongoing campaign, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Invasion of Ukraine.

John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said Friday that US officials “saw some early indications that this plane was certainly shot down by Russian air defense systems.”

He assured reporters that the United States has intelligence or information indicating this possibility, but said that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are currently conducting the investigation and that the United States “will respect this process.”

Meanwhile, independent aviation experts have cast doubt on the bird collision theory, with some pointing to damage to the plane’s fuselage as evidence that it may have been hit by gunfire.

“It certainly doesn’t look like a flock of birds,” said Robert Sumwalt, a CBS News aviation safety analyst and former head of the National Transportation Safety Board.

“Birds do not fly at the altitude at which the initial damage to this aircraft occurred,” Sumwalt added.

Yan Matveev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the tail of the crashed plane reveal damage consistent with fragments of small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

He added, “It appears that the back of the plane was damaged by missile fragments.”

Speaking to reporters on a conference call on December 27, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on allegations of possible Russian involvement in the incident, saying it was up to investigators to determine the cause.

Survivors heard sounds before the collision

Passengers and crew members who survived the accident told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on board the plane as it was flying over Grozny.

After one noise, the oxygen masks were automatically released, flight attendant Aidan Rahimli said. She said that she went to provide first aid to her colleague Zulfikar Asadov, and then they heard the sound of another explosion.

Asadov said the sounds sounded like they were hitting the plane from outside. Shortly after, he suffered a sudden injury, similar to “a deep wound. My arm was torn as if someone had hit me with an axe,” he said. He denied claims by Kazakh officials that an oxygen canister exploded inside the plane.

Two other survivors recounted hearing explosions before the plane went down: Jirova Salihat told Azerbaijani TV in an interview at the hospital that “something exploded” near her leg, and Vava Shabanova said that “there were two explosions in the sky, and after an hour and an hour,” and after half an hour, the plane crashed on the ground.

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Chris Livesay and

Sarah Cook

She contributed to this report.