Wall Street companies see the risk of recession increasing on the threats of customs tariffs, trade war

The leading Wall Street companies update their expectations to reflect the increasing possibility of the American economy Entry of the recession This year, as a fear of the breadth of the trade war, it may harm consumers and companies alike.

president Donald Trump He plans to unveil its mutual introductory plans on Wednesday, April 2, which was called “Tahrir Day”, while the 25 % tariff on imported cars applies on Thursday. This customs tariff will probably arouse revenge by American commercial partners, which will affect the ability of American exporters to reach foreign markets, although Trump believes that definitions help protect the United States industry.

The effect of the escalating trade war may cause the American economy, which was already seen slowing down amid constant inflation and the cooling market, sliding into stagnation.

On Sunday, Mark Zandy, the chief economist in Modi, wrote in a publication on X that “it is possible that the recession will start this year to 40 %, an increase of 15 % at the beginning of the year.”

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“Last week’s economic data was worrying, including the segment of consumer confidence, evil consumer spending, and constantly high inflation,” he said. “Trade War discounts and intensity behind all this, with the announcement of last week about Big Increased customs tariffs On the imports of vehicles and next mutual definitions, things will surely get worse. ”

“The recession is still less likely not only because workers’ layoffs are still low, job growth and income positively. This Friday Junction Report In March, he will give us a feeling if this is continuing, ”Zandy wrote.

It is too early to expect many repercussions from the trade war Doug cut In job data, it indicates an increase in the monthly salary statements of approximately 150,000. Anything south 100 thousand will be worried, and anything north of 200 thousand will be welcome. But whatever the job number, as long as the definitions and Doug wounds continue, the chances of stagnation will also work. “

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Team Goldman Sachs Economists raised their recession on Sunday in a client memo, who wrote that “now we see the possibility of recession for a period of 12 months by 35 %.”

“The upgrade from our previous estimate by 20 % reflects our low basic line, the last sharp deterioration in family and business confidence, and data from White House officials indicating an increase in the willingness of tolerance with economic weakness in the short term in the pursuit of their policies,” they explained.

“While the feelings have been a weak indicator of activity over the past few years, we are less rejected by the recent decline due to Economic basics Economists wrote: “Most importantly, most importantly, real income growth has already slowed sharply and we expect only average of only 1.4 % this year.”

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Earlier this month, JP Morgan economists raised the possibility of recession to 40 %, up from 30 % at the beginning of the year. They repeated this opinion in the memorandum of last week, saying, “Do not reduce the ability of the American economy and the global economy to absorb shocks, with the realization that the shock of great policy/feelings may hinder even healthy expansion.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell He said in his press conference after preparing earlier this month that the possibility of recession has increased since the beginning of the year, although it is not high and noticed historically, at any specific time, there is a possibility of 1 in 4 in the next 12 months.

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“The question is whether these possibilities are, in this current position high. I will say this, we do not publish such predictions. If you look at external predictions, a number of predictors may be generally, a number of them have raised their probability of stagnation to some extent, but they are still in relatively low levels. It was very low.” So she moved, but it is not high. “