Trucks lined up at the container station in the Longtan Port area in Nanjing Port, Jiangsu Province, China on the evening of April 8, 2025.
CFOTO | Future publishing Gety pictures
BEIJING – City on Tuesday became one of the first investment companies to reduce its growth expectations in China to escalate trade tensions with the United States
In less than a week, American definitions on goods have multiplied more than twice as much, while Beijing has returned with more duties and restrictions on American companies.
CITI analyzes reduced their expectations for China’s gross domestic product to 4.2 % this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, as they see “a small range of agreement between the United States and China after recent escalation.”
On Monday, Natixis also told correspondents that the company reduces the forecast of GDP in China to 4.2 % this year, a decrease from 4.7 % previously.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs did not reduce their expectations, but this week he warned of increasing negative risks to their expectation – both currently predict 4.5 %.
In March, China announced its official growth The target will be “about 5 %“In 2025, but stressed that it will not be easy to reach the goal.
“The main issue is that the uncertainty in the economy is increasing,” said Hao Zhu, the chief economist at Guootai Junan International, on Tuesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He pointed out that the vision of future growth has decreased significantly, while the American definitions may continue to rise.
US President Donald Trump announced an additional tariff for Chinese goods entering the United States on Wednesday after Beijing raised the duties of all American products by 34 %. As part of its plan to prepare the customs tariff in multiple countries, the White House said last week that it would add a 34 % tax to Chinese goods.
In addition to increasing two rounds of customs tariffs by 10 % earlier this year, the new American definitions on Chinese products in 2025 104 % reached.
Decrease the effect of new definitions
While the initial increase by 50 % in duties can reduce Chinese GDP by 1.5 percentage points, a 50 % subsequent increase will lead to a decrease of 0.9 percentage points.
Goldman said that Chinese exports to the United States represent about 3 percentage of GDP in China, noting that this includes 2.35 percentage points of the local value addition and 0.65 percentage points for the associated manufacturing investment.
China is expected to report March trade data on Monday and GDP for the first quarter on April 16.
China’s chief economist said in the report on Tuesday that Nomura expects China’s exports to decrease by 2 % this year, which is worse than its previous forecast for non -change.
But he maintained his expectations 2025 GDP by 4.5 %. “Given the extraordinary liquid situation, it is impossible to be reasonable for the effect of the American trade war and China on the Chinese economy,” he said, adding that his expectations are already a much worse tensions.
China this week indicated that it may reduce interest rates or increase financial spending to enhance growth in the near future.
Yue Su, the main economist in the Economic Intelligence Unit, said in an e -mail that the decrease in the effect of customs tariffs could also be fed at the expense of differentiation and complementarity in Beijing that benefiting from the United States is likely to reach a roof, Yi Su, the main economist, China, in the Economic Intelligence Unit, in an e -mail.
“From Beijing’s point of view, it appears that the strategic gains of strong revenge beyond the economic costs associated with it,” she said.
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