- House sales hardly above She faced the pace in the years that followed housing crash. This time, this is due to the fact that potential buyers cannot afford to bear high homes and high real estate mortgage rates, and sellers cannot lose low prices.
Not many people buy or sell homes at the present time.
In January, the total house sales came 4.7 million. This level “exceeds the low rate of weakness only in the wake of the great recession between 2008 and 2010″, ” Wales Vargo Economists wrote in a Modern search note. January is the latest available data for both new and current homes sales. In the years before the epidemic, this total sales figure tends to hover about 6 million. During the epidemiological mutation, it was larger.
The current economy is not similar to the financial crisis, but there are some things that occur in the housing world that can explain this mystery. House prices rose throughout the epidemic Mortgage rates Once the federal reserve is entered a tightening course to tame hot inflation. A mixture of homes and high mortgage rates hurts the demand, so fewer people buy homes because they cannot afford their costs. On the other hand, some of those who own a house and get a low mortgage rate during the epidemic or free mortgage do not sell; The phenomenon is indicated The effect of the lock It increases the exacerbation of the current house in homes due to construction contracts.
Economists Wells Vargo wrote: “It is not possible to blame the frequency of home sales on the recession,” Economists Wells Vargo wrote. “Instead, the main factor that affects residential activity is still the conditions of the ability to withstand harmful costs. In addition to the high mortgage rates, the prices of homes continue to rise.”
House prices are no longer suffering from two numbers, and mortgage rates have declined, but not enough to reflect the past five years. Since February 2020, Home prices 45 % increased, an average of 30 years is fixed Mortgage rate It is 6.67 %. In February 2020, mortgage rates were 3 %. The country is still almost short Four million homes, also.
“It has a sense of meaning in the conditions of bearing harmful costs, which currently lasts,” said Charlie Dujeriti, the chief economist in Wales Fargo. luck In an email. “Given the ability to withstand costs, it will remain very unfavorable for most buyers, it is expected that the pace of home sales will remain weak and not far from the low levels that reach the financial crisis.”
Wells Fargo is only modestly over the next few years. MOODY prediction is not much different. He expects a little improvement in transaction volumes this year before it improves modestly in the next year.
But at the present time, “locking the interest rate is behind low levels of current homes sales, which represent the lion’s share of total home sales.” luck In a statement.
Wales Vargo said that the low ability to withstand housing costs is the opposite wind of sales. Walsh said that the average monthly amount and benefits at home have doubled in the past five years. He added that the Moody’s Housing Expervily, which measures the degree that the middle -income family can bear the mortgage to the average price house, at its average levels since the 1980s. Walking does not see mortgage rates that decrease useful by the end of the year.
Others contacted home sales in the current housing cycle and the great financial crisis, although the two economic periods are completely different. Home prices are not decreased as they were at that time and unemployment does not rise either. As the CEO of Redvin Glenn Kilman It was said once luck, The economy may be prosperous but housing has decreased in stagnation.
Zelman predictable housing is expanding Earlier warned Perhaps the current homes sales were at its lowest level since the great financial crisis and that it has witnessed years of depression sales during this year. JPMorgan Senior Markets Economic Joe Sedyl Previously “Current homes sales are very depressed, as after the global financial crisis.”
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
https://fortune.com/img-assets/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Real_estate_frozen_sign.jpg?resize=1200,600
Source link