Vietnam appeared as a commercial winner. The new tariffs may be disrupted

Vietnam has always been seen as a successful example of adopting foreign trade, attracting some of the world’s largest companies to create centers to manufacture everything from shoes to electronic products that bring stores all over the world.

But now, fears are escalating that the US tariff for the United States, Donald Trump, can hinder the goal of ambitious growth in Vietnam despite Washington’s diplomatic initiatives that economists say is unlikely to change politics soon.

Trump A nation in Southeast Asia with the duty to import 46 %One of the most events between It targets more than 180 countriesDealing with a heavy blow to a derived nation Almost 90 % of the annual GDP One of the exports of goods and services in 2023, according to World Bank estimates.

The new fees can fly 1.2 degrees of economic growth in Vietnam this year, according to the estimates of economists at OCBC, which led them to reduce the country’s gross domestic output expectations to 5 % in 2025. This would represent a great goal to guide “At least 8 %” this year.

The growth in Southeast Asian economy has already slowed down, expanding 6.93 % in the first quarter, a decrease from 7.55 % in the previous quarter.

Vietnam has emerged as a manufacturing center for many companies that sell goods in the United States, including multinational retailers in consumer goods such as Nikefor Adidasfor Uniqlo and Apple IncDue to a mixture of relatively cheap labor costs and supportive government policies.

According to the annual profit report for the year 2024, the factories are in Vietnam 50 % of its shoes were manufactured And 28 % of its clothes products, while Adidas was obtained 39 % of the shoe elements From Vietnam last year. Apple also has Its presence in manufacturing in Vietnam In recent years, with about 20 % of iPad production and 90 % of wearable Apple products such as Apple Watch takes place in Vietnam.

Since the last US -Chinese trade war erupted during the first period of Trump in 2018, many Chinese manufacturers also transferred their production to Vietnam to avoid American definitions.

The surplus of Vietnam trade in goods with the United States is more than three times to a A record number of 123.5 billion dollars Last year of less than $ 40 billion in 2018, according to American data that linked Vietnam’s export goods to the United States with $ 136.6 billion in 2024.

The new fees announced by Trump last week can reduce total goods exports in Vietnam by up to 40 % this year, according to OCBC. The bank was martyred with data from the Customs Authority in Vietnam, which showed that the exports of Vietnam goods to the United States represent about 30 % of its total commercial rotation.

The new duties may also reduce the attractiveness of creating a manufacturing base in the country, which weighs to foreign direct investment flowing to Vietnam.

But as often with International trade statisticsThere are differences between the official figures reported by the United States and Vietnam, in part due to the differences in evaluation methods.

Ngwin Thu Awan, Head of the Inflation Department at the Statistical Office, He said Sunday Bloomberg reported that the new US definitions can lead some foreign companies to transfer part of their production from Vietnam.

Economists at OCBC said: “The mutual definitions of the Association of Southeast Asia and India will harm the” China +1 “strategy that has benefited from the region for several years so far,” said economists at the Bank of OCBC.

After a A phone call to Trump last FridayThe head of the Vietnam Party told Lam in readings that the country is ready to remove all fees on US imports, and raise the tariff rate to 0 % if the Trump administration is doing the same for Vietnamese exports to the United States

He also reiterated Hanoi’s commitment to strengthening imports from the United States to reduce bilateral trade surplus and encourage American companies to increase investments in Vietnam.

In response to questions about Vietnam Al -Safir’s offer, White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said It was not enough To ensure the abolition of the new fees.

“We will not take Vietnam. When they come to us and say” we will go to a zero tariff, “CNBC told CNBC.Squawk box“

Examples of “unsuccessful fraud” that Navarro cited Chinese products that are directed via Vietnam, theft of intellectual property and value -added tax on goods, which criticized Trump as hidden commercial barriers.

In the period leading up Reducing tariffs on several American products, such as LNG and Cars, and their approval Experimental operation for internet internet service In the country.

China took revenge on An additional tariff of 34 % on all American goodsBut most Asian economies chose to refrain from direct revenge.

MUFG’s chief economist MUFG said that Asian economics negotiations with the United States may not “result in the required results, especially for countries that manage a major trade surplus with the United States, such as Vietnam.”

He said that while Vietnam negotiations with the Trump administration may “carry some fruits”, it is unlikely that the United States will offer definitions “significantly” from the proposed levels.

Wan said that China’s revenge has complicated Vietnam negotiations with us, as politicians worry that Chinese companies may take advantage of the most lenient definitions on Vietnam.