Upholding Mozambique’s Controversial Election Result: What to Know | Election news

Mozambique’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal has largely The results were upheld After the country’s disputed October elections, reaffirming the ruling Frelimo party’s decades-long hold on power, and leading to fears of more violence in a country already rocked by weeks of deadly protests.

In a ruling on Monday, the judges of the Constitutional Council appointed Daniel Chapo as the next president, confirming that the Frelimo party candidate received 65 percent of the votes, contrary to what was previously announced. 70 percent. It also gave main rival Venancio Mondlane another four points in the polls, giving him a total of 24 percent of the share.

This ruling did little to calm supporters of the controversial opposition presidential candidate who claims to have won the election. Mondlane had threatened “chaos” ahead of the court’s announcement, urging his supporters to “shut down” the country this week if Frelimo’s victory was confirmed.

The country has a population of 34 million people He was on edge Since October 9 General elections. Since then, Mondlane’s supporters, mostly hundreds of thousands of young people, have taken to the streets and faced gunfire from security forces.

At least 110 people have died across the country as of Monday, according to Amnesty International. Other monitoring groups put the death toll at up to 130.

Here’s what you need to know about what happened in the elections: Why was the vote controversial? What might happen next:

Why were the elections so controversial?

The October elections saw the little-known Chapo, the candidate of the ruling Frelimo (Front de Liberation de Mozambique) party, win by a landslide. Frelimo also improved its parliamentary majority in the 250-seat government.

However, opposition candidate Mondlane, and his allied party, Podemos (Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique), who enjoy strong support among young people in Mozambique, claim that the results were rigged. The country has one of the youngest populations in the world with 56 percent of the population aged 19 or younger.

The judges said Monday that Mondlane, who was Chapo’s closest rival among three other candidates, received 24 percent of the vote. However, the politician claims he won by 53%, surpassing his party’s tally. Podemos also claims to have won 138 seats in parliament, compared to the 31 seats initially announced by the National Election Commission.

The Frelimo party has governed Mozambique since the country’s independence from Portugal in 1975. The party’s leaders, including outgoing president Filipe Nyusi, fought in the country’s war of liberation, meaning that Frelimo was highly respected by most of the older population who fought the war .

However, the party has become increasingly unpopular among young people. It’s part of a bigger one trend in South Africa Young people, who have no nostalgia for the independence movements that turned into institutional parties, are becoming more critical of their governments and more willing to vote to overthrow them. Botswana, South Africa and Namibia all scored either fully or partially Lead the opposition In the general elections this year.

In Mozambique, high levels of unemployment, general economic decline, and armed conflict in the north have tarnished Frelimo’s legacy. Northern Mozambique is in control Insecurity crisis Due to armed attacks on civilians by the armed group Al-Shabaab.

At the same time, extreme weather events such as storms also struck the same region, causing devastation, disease and hunger. In the latest disaster that occurred on December 15, Hurricane Desire The hurricane made landfall in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula provinces, killing at least 94 people.

What prompted the violent protests?

In the wake of the October 9 elections – even before the results were officially announced – Mondlane lashed out, accusing Frelimo and the National Electoral Council of rigging the ballot boxes and intimidating Podemos supporters. The opposition politician called for strikes and mass street protests, and as vote counting continued, it was clear that Frelimo had won.

Like Mondelein, the other two presidential candidates in the election denounced the unofficial results. Osofo Momadi of Renamo (National Resistance of Mozambique), the largest opposition party so far, received 6 percent of the vote. The fourth candidate, Lothar Simango of the Democratic Movement of Mozambique, who received 3% of the vote, also alleged fraud.

In addition, the country’s Association of Catholic Bishops also rejected the election results, alleging cases of ballot fraud and forgery of results sheets. Similarly, Election observers from the European Union They said they noticed an “unjustified change” in the results in some polling stations.

Shortly before the demonstrations began on October 19, Gunmen killed two senior leaders of the Podemos party: Lawyer Elvino Dias, who was planning to file a legal challenge, and parliamentary candidate Paulo Guambi. Mondlane claimed that state security forces were responsible, further angering Podemos supporters. The authorities denied the allegations, and Frelimo’s Chapo called for an investigation into the killings.

Unappeased, thousands poured into Maputo and other cities to support Podemos. Protesters targeted police stations and damaged Frelimo billboards and other government buildings. The security forces deployed to suppress the protests used live bullets on the demonstrators, killing dozens. On October 21, Podemos legally challenged the vote before the Constitutional Council, the highest body that can decide on electoral law.

On October 24, the Electoral Commission announced the official results, resulting in a larger increase More violent demonstrationswhich has erupted intermittently since then. The demonstrators set fires and blocked roads in Maputo and other cities. In November, the government deployed soldiers to help maintain order, but protesters continued to gather intermittently.

It is one of the worst bouts of violence Mozambique has seen in more than 30 years. Many compare the unrest to the period when the country was in the grip of a civil war between Frelimo and Renamo between 1977 and 1992.

Amnesty International said last week that at least 329 people were shot, and among the dead were 110 children and bystanders, while Human Rights Watch estimated the death toll at about 130. The groups said that police arrested more than 3,500 people and cut off the internet at intervals to impede the movements of demonstrators.

What did Mundelein do?

Mondlane said that he fled the country to an unknown location after his colleagues in the Podemos party were killed, fearing for his life. It is unclear exactly when he left, or where he may be currently. At one point, Mundelein said he was not on the continent.

The politician, who has 1.2 million followers on Facebook, has continued to use the platform to call for more protests to see “an end to the Frelimo regime”, as well as in solidarity with protesters killed in the post-election violence.

Prosecutors brought charges against Mondlane over his public calls to paralyze the country, allegedly attempts to illegally seize power. They are demanding $505 million in damages, which they claim the state incurred from the politician. Authorities also froze Mondelein’s bank accounts.

Early Monday, ahead of the council’s decision, which irrevocably finalized the electoral commission’s results, Mondlane threatened to call for a popular uprising if the judges ruled in Frelimo’s favour.

“If we have electoral truth, we will have peace… If we have electoral lies, we will make the country fall into the abyss, into chaos, into chaos. I hope they understand me,” he said, adding that his supporters should “lock down” the country from Monday until Friday.

Of the seven judges of the Constitutional Council, four of them were appointed by parliamentarians from the Frelimo party. Judge Lucia Ribeiro, who presides over the council and announced the ruling on Monday, was chosen by outgoing President Nyusi to head the council in 2019.

Nyusi had previously called a meeting of all presidential candidates in late November, but Mondlane said he would only attend if Frelimo accepted his election victory and if lawsuits against him were dropped.

How did the violence affect the economy?

Weeks of unrest have seen businesses closed in Maputo and other violence hotspots.

In November, the International Monetary Fund reduced the previously expected growth rate of 5 percent to 4.3 percent in November. Last week, a senior NOC official told Reuters news agency that continued violence, combined with the effects of Typhoon Chido, could see forecasts fall further by the end of the year.

Business owners say an estimated two million people visit the country’s clean beaches and tropical islands, but their numbers have declined significantly since the election. In Ponta do Ouro, a tourist destination on the southern border with South Africa, business owner Jose Sompani told Al Jazeera this week that his accommodation business was feeling tense.

“We have canceled many flights, and now the occupancy rate is a little less than 40 percent,” he said. “People are still waiting to see if the protests will continue or not, and they say the security situation is not very good.”

Imports from neighboring countries were also affected, as goods remained stuck at the ports of Maputo and Beira in Mozambique, two of the ports most used by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Business owners say some companies in landlocked Zimbabwe have had to redirect their cargo to other regional ports.

South Africa temporarily closed its borders from November 6 to 9 after vehicles and buildings were burned on the Mozambican side of the Lebombo border post, one of the region’s busiest land ports. South African authorities also said at the time that seven Mozambican officials had requested asylum alongside South Africa.

What’s next?

Adriano Novunga, director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Mozambique, told Al Jazeera: “Legally, this is the end… The Constitutional Council is the highest in the country… so this ruling cannot be appealed.”

He said: “(The results) do not reflect the will of the people. Objectively speaking, they are not credible, but they are the legal results that we have.”

The social activist added that “the entire Mozambican people” are dissatisfied with the Frelimo government, explaining that “public legitimacy and Frelimo’s ability to protect its victory are very limited, in the sense that unlike the past, you had the state apparatus mobilizing its forces.” Behind Frelimo – this time you don’t have it. “That is why there is high military brutality, because they resorted to violence to protect their rule.”

Although Frelimo’s victory has been “confirmed, it will be a mountain to climb (for them) to rule,” Novunga said.

Regarding Mondlane, he said, “I do not see that the Frelimo mechanism allows him to return (to Mozambique).”

Analysts said Mondlane’s supporters on the ground were likely to respond to the politician’s calls and return to the streets to protest. It is also possible that demonstrations will turn violent again, and that some deaths will be recorded.

Security forces were deployed heavily on Monday, and heavily armed soldiers and helicopters were seen. However, videos on Facebook have already shown scenes of burning tires on some streets in Maputo.