Ukraine questions the value of the Black Sea truce with Russia

The Ukrainian naval patrol boat was hit by the Black Sea, a double machine gun, 25 millimeters closed on the horizon. The enemy, Russia, was not anywhere on the horizon, but it is present. In the driving room, Captain Mykhailo and his crew wiped the screens that display the coded areas that indicate the waters of the Russian mine and the red shares that follow the drones wandering in the area.

The crew’s mission was to defend water off Odessa, the largest city of the Black Sea port in Ukraine, and to keep it safe for commercial traffic. It was hard work – the clearance of Russian mines during the day, and the landing of drones at night – but after more than a year of patrols alongside other Ukrainian navy ships, they succeeded.

It was the Russian navy It was pushed away from the Ukrainian beachesAllow the commercial shipping of Ukraine to Recovery to pre -war levels near. On Tuesday, the fruits of the efforts Captain Mikhail embodied on the horizon: a silhouette of a 740 -footed ship divided into a Ukrainian port to be loaded with grains.

Captain Mikhailo said: “The big ship is nice,” speaking on condition of using his first name and ranking only, in line with the Ukrainian military bases.

Kyiv and Moscow adhere to The ceasefire on the Black Sea Last month, during separate talks through the United States, but the military and commercial achievements in Ukraine in that water have led many in Odessa to think about this question: Does Ukraine have anything that you gain from such a truce?

despite Commitment to stop shootingCountries are still negotiating whether or how they will enter into force. Odesa’s naval officers and business owners used the delay in assessing the positives and negatives of the deal. The ceasefire can avoid the ports of Russian drones and missile strikes, but it may also mean getting rid of the strategic advantage of Ukraine in the sea, and perhaps the only field in the battlefield where it carries the upper hand.

“I don’t want to stop the shooting,” said Treel Khajishevili, president of Novik LLC, a Ukrainian shipping agent working in Odessa. “The only aspect that wants to stop the shooting is Russia because it no longer controls the Black Sea.”

Ukraine’s suspicions are only deepened with Moscow conditions for the truce: Lifting some Western economic sanctions and returning to a previous, non-subsidized deal that allowed Russia to control the commercial ships that left the Ukrainian ports to inspect weapons-there are non-consecutive demands for Kiev.

“Why should we make concessions now?

The deep lack of confidence between the two countries also continues. In principle, both sides agreed to temporarily stop the strokes against energy infrastructure, Just accuse each other of violations.

It is still unclear whether the ceasefire in the Black Sea will become valid. Ukrainian military officials have noted that Russia has declined to attack the Ukrainian ports since last month, as it is in line with one of Kiev’s main demands, but they warn that it is too early to call it a truce.

Ukraine can now refuse to stop the Black Sea ceasefire talking about folders about the intense shift in wealth there.

Soon after the launch of Russia Widespread Three years ago, her naval ships came 15 miles from the coast of Ukraine, and she was close to shooting directly. Captain Mikhaelo, 27, recalled a blow “a reconnaissance station” on the southern suburbs of Odessa. In the city, Population fills sand bags To fortify defensive situations, you prepare for assault.

Russia was unable to breach Odessa. But the navy controls enough from the Black Sea on the port of Ukrainian ports, strangling the country’s economy Global food security threat Because Ukraine is a great source of grains.

Non -medium deal In July 2022, the cargo corridor of Ukrainian exports was reopened, but only under a deal that allows Russia to inspect all commercial ships of weapons. Kiev said that Moscow deliberately slowed inspections to strangle trade. After a year, there were hardly twenty ships Using the corridor every month.

Russia Withdraw from that deal in July 2023She complains about the same economic sanctions that they are now seeking to lift, and threatened all commercial ships heading to and from Ukraine.

To restart exports, Ukraine has started a campaign to restore the Black Sea Fleet in Russia, using drones and missiles to destroy or damage more than a quarter of its main warships, According to British Defense Intelligence services. The attacks forced Russia’s fleet to retreat to the eastern part of the sea, away from the Ukrainian beaches, allowing Ukraine. Security of a new shipping corridor This embraces its coast before entering the territorial waters of NATO members.

Captain Mikhaelo said his boat for the patrol-a cabin in the island category The United States donated it in 2021 – The commercial ships that sail off the Ukrainian beaches are accompanied by “providing safety from mines, from the air attacks to Russia.”

More ships are now traveling through the new corridor than the unintended agreement. The export of black seafood also approaches pre -war levels. Last year, Ukraine shipped 42 million metric tons of grains and oil seeds, or nearly 80 percent of its size before the war, according to the data collected by the Ukrainian company Dragon Capital.

Against the background of this background, experts do not see a little benefit for Ukraine in the Black Sea fire.

“It is permissible to return to the unaccumented agreement, according to Russia’s request,” the unlike of all the success of the Ukrainian corridor obtained by the Ukrainian army, especially if the ship inspections are reproduced. “I cannot see why Ukraine should accept this request,” said Natalia Shbiotska, a senior analyst in the Druze capital, as Russia requested. “meaningless.”

Experts say that all Ukraine could be a ceasefire will be the end of Russian strikes on its ports. Those attacks are her Several ships were damaged He destroyed many containers and grain silos. At the height of the attacks, in the second half of 2023, the ability to export Odessa ports decreased by up to 20 percent, said Yuri Vaskov, the former deputy minister of infrastructure in Ukraine.

“For Ukraine, the ceasefire in the Black Sea means first stopping attacks on the ports infrastructure so that the grain corridor can work without disrupting,” said Captain DMYTRO PLETENCHUK, a Ukrainian navy spokesman.

“There is nothing that Russia can offer us in this agreement,” he said during an interview in Odessa.

However, this offer was absent from the White House data Announcing the suspension of the Black Sea last month.

Andre Klainico, head of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, said that he does not expect the two sides to create a marine truce in view of their conflicting demands. Russia wants to use the truce to transfer some of its ships to the central part of the Black Sea, which is what Kiev has Actually It would push counter -attacks.

Once again on the boat of Captain Mikhailo, the ceasefire feels far away as it was always. Iron boxes of the tours of the machine are ready to be used on the deck. On Tuesday night, the crew emptied many of them, firing on Russian drones heading towards Odyssey and its suburbs.

“Unfortunately, we failed to overthrow them,” although he had never hit the ports that night, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

“For me, nothing changes,” he added. “He is fighting as usual.”

Daria Metiok and Maria Varinkova The reports contributed.