Türkiye’s protests are much more than the fate of the mayor of Istanbul

Under the smell of tear gas on the night in Istanbul, there is a hint of something else – a whiff of panic by the leader of Türkiye for a long time, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

One of his competitors has been placed behind bars – so far, very familiar.

But Ikrim Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, indicates that President Erdogan has shook – and may have gone far. The CHP, which calls for vast crowds in the streets, certainly hopes so.

EKREM IMAMOGLU – is always intelligent, is even ready for detention – is the main competitor to the authoritarian leader of Türkiye. It can be replaced in the presidential elections to be held by 2028 – assuming that he is free to appeal.

But this is more than just a row about the fate of the mayor of Istanbul – attractive although it might be.

Freedom and democracy steadily eroded in the era of Erdogan. Many believe that this represents an opportunity to summon and stop the landing to the comprehensive autocracy – if it is not too late.

They go out every night while they are running the riots and tear gas and rubber bullets, the prohibition of demonstrations, the closure of the road and the bridge, and the risk of detention.

More than 1,000 people have been held so far – in only 5 days – and count. This is an indication of the ease of arrest here.

Türkiye claims to be a democracy that works – and at the value of the nominal, it is. There are elections. Usually voters ’turnout – the Turks are proud of their right to go to polls and vote. The vote is largely fair, on the same day.

The problem is what is happening away from the polling stations.

The opposition politicians can be imprisoned. Critical intimidation. The demonstrators were arrested. The media is largely controlled by the government. Tweets mocked the president that could drop you into a cell. By the time when the polling day comes, there is a tsunami from the supporting coverage of the government and opposition conflicts in order to take a look at it.

Ekrem Imamoglu is the type of politician who can penetrate all this and reach voters. It is the intelligence of the media and elected the mayor of Istanbul three times. Now he is accused of embezzlement, taking bribes and managing a criminal organization.

If he is convicted that he can be prevented from standing in the presidential race. He already resumes a previous conviction and a two -year prison sentence, for insulting election officials.

Türkiye insists that its courts are independent and simply follow the law. Human rights activists here, and independent analysts, make fun of this idea.

The Group of Campaign, Human Rights Watch, said that the detention of the mayor, along with about 100 municipal officials and politicians, is a “political motivation step to strangle legal political activities.” In the past, it criticized “politicized decisions by the courts” in Türkiye.

In a post on X, where 9.6 million followers have, Imamoglu said that the case against him was a “black stigma on our democracy”, adding, “I stand long. I will never move.”

This is what Erdogan, 71, may be afraid of a younger opponent, in 53 years, also calls for conservative Turkish voters, and he is ready to fight long.

So, what is happening now?

The protests can gain momentum and continue to spread. This will lead to a serious challenge for Erdogan. How long before the armed security forces cut greatly? How long before someone loses his life in protest? There is a breakdown point for each strong system, and it can come with one bullet.

The opposition intends to keep up with pressure and demonstrations.

But after two decades on top, Erdogan still has many loyal supporters. It actually controls all the tools of strength and appears to be determined to stick. It will be a banker on the demonstrations that come out, over time.

The President and the ruling Justice and Development Party party hopes that the demonstrators will roam and return to anxiety over the breaking of inflation (39 % in February), and the dwindling value of Turkish Lura, rather than freedom of expression and democracy.

The coming days and weeks will experience the power of staying for both sides. But if there are lessons to be learned from street protests in other authoritarian countries, it is unlikely that this is a quick breakthrough.