Trump’s tariff is an economic emergency for Americans

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The writer is the director of economic policy studies at the American Institute of Institutions

“Tahrir’s Day” arrived. Unfortunately, it threatens to liberate Americans from a strong wage growth, low unemployment and a large part of them Retirement savings.

Trump’s tariff is an economic emergency. If implemented, it will be the average tariff rate in the United States higher From under Smoot-Hawley. will form The biggest tax increase since 1968 is to finance the Vietnam War. Our commercial partners will take revenge. By raising taxes and prices, they eat family income and spending. Spending on commercial investment and US exports will be implemented severely. If it continues, this trade war is likely to stagnate.

And why? around half US imports are intermediate commodities used locally to produce final weapons. The high definitions define production costs for American companies, which harms competitiveness. Take steel. For every job in the production of American steel, there 80 That uses steel in production. Trump’s tariff may actually help one of the steel producers, but they will harm 80 others by reducing the competitiveness of their owners.

Economists Aaron Flyin and Justin Pierce appreciation During the first trade war of Trump, employment losses in manufacturing from the high input prices were five times the volume of gains from importing protection. In addition, the losses caused by revenge were approximately three times the size of the gains from import protection.

Indeed, prominent companies respond to economic reality. Olyhio Cleveland Clevish Declare Last week, he was putting 600 workers in Michigan and 630 in Minnesota to alleviate the low demand due to the Trump tariff. During the week ending April 1, the company’s share price Decline 11 percent.

Vice President JD Vance Argue Trump “believes in economic self -sufficiency.” Well, to see the benefits of economic self -sufficiency, look at North Korea. Still, Vans are right. Trump is a real commercial viewing the trade deficit with hostility. But it should not be expected to be expected to reduce the deficit, which the United States is investing, which it invests more than it saves it. To get evidence, look again to his first term, which saw the United States The current account deficit An increase of 18 percent from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2020.

Moreover, We should not Pay special attention to manufacturing or excessive anxiety about commercial deficit. The average wage for a worker in the service sector has exceeded the average manufacturing wage in late 2018. Nostalgia is not replaced by an imagined past and the level of swinging cases are not sufficient reasons for trying to transfer workers from low -wage wage jobs.

Likewise, the trade deficit means that the United States can consume more than it is produced. This is a good thing. Consumer deficit provides a greater diversity of products and gives us companies a competitive advantage by allowing workers to focus on high -value production activities. Again, we should not want to return to American workers to the days of tennis shoes together in factories.

What about Trump’s other goals? These definitions will lead to revenues to reduce taxes-but if its goal is to help the working class, the increase in taxes on the consumption of families from the working class to finance low income taxes for amazing families is strange. You will refresh the brakes on global economic growth to weaken national security. Flying stirring to companies in allied countries will not enhance supply chains or advanced economy elasticity.

Trump should be very concerned that the high working -class taxes will weaken him politically and other Republicans, making it difficult to pass the tax bill in 2025 and control Congress in the middle of the period 2026.

A CBS News/Yougov Reconciliation last week He appears Only 23 percent of Americans believe that his policies make them financially better – a decrease of 19 percent of January. On Tuesday, Democrats procedure Better than expected in two homes in the deep Florida regions. The next day, a handful of Republican Senators break With Trump on commercial policy and a voice to retract his tariff in Canada. The Senator argued the Republican Party, Rand Paul, that Trump did not have the constitutional power to raise taxes.

The political reality that the Americans will rebel strongly against the president who intentionally raises consumer prices and increases unemployment can be the tool of economic salvation. If Trump is interested in republican success in 2026 and 2028, it will reflect the path before many economic damage occurs. When dust settles, “Liberation Day” may end with the liberation of Americans from the commercial fantasies of a deceitful president.