Trump’s introductory war: Who wins so far? | Trade War News

After US President Donald Trump suspended the “mutual tariff” on the main American commercial partners on April 9They ascended to Chinese goods. American commercial fees on most imports from China increased to 145 percent. Beijing took on his own duties by 125 percent over American goods.

Trump has long accused China of exploiting the United States in trade, as it threw customs tariffs as necessary to revive local manufacturing and reshape jobs to the United States. He also wants to use a customs tariff to finance tax cuts. Most economists are still skeptical that Trump will achieve his goals.

Currently, the United States and China are imprisoned in a high -risk chicken game. The world is waiting to know the country that will be achieved and that will remain the path. With Trump approaching his first 100 days in his position for the second time, here is the place where the tariff war with China stands:

What happens with negotiations?

Trump recently played the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, US President He said Its definition on China “will come down greatly” in the near future.

“We will have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23. He also said that his administration was “actively negotiating” with the Chinese side without clarification.

On April 24, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce rejected President Trump’s statements, saying that there There are no conversations Between the two countries.

“Any claims on the progress of economic and commercial negotiations in China and the United States are unfounded and have no realistic basis,” the ministry spokesman said.

While he insisted that Beijing would not slow down any economic strikes from Washington, he also said that the door is “wide open” to the conversations.

Last week, Reuters reported that China was evaluating exemptions for the chosen US documents – a list of up to 131 products.

Beijing did not make any general statement on this issue.

Did the tariff war affect exports?

Trump provided comprehensive definitions on China less than three weeks ago. The repercussions will not be felt for American companies until later this year. However, warning signals are already flashing in red.

The US Department of Agriculture data shows that the exports of soy grains-the largest export of the farm in the United States-were largely fell for the period from 11 to 17 April, the first full week of reports since Trump’s announcement in China.

By April 17, net sales of US soybeans decreased by 50 percent compared to the previous week. It was driven by a 67 percent decrease in weekly soybean exports to China, which until recently was the largest export destination in America for legumes.

According to PiergiusePpe Fortunato, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Newchatel in Switzerland, “Revenge definitions in China will strike American farmers strongly. Some may run out of work.” He added that all sectors, with exposure to China, will be subjected to pressure.

In 2023, the United States exported about $ 15 billion of oil, gas and coal to China. The loss of this market will strike energy companies.

Will imports of the United States achieve great success?

Since the beginning of the Trump introductory war, goods shipments have decreased. According to Linerlytica, the shipping data provider, Chinese charging reservations for the United States decreased by 30 to 60 percent in April.

The sharp decline in shipping from the third largest commercial partner in America – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been feeling. In May, thousands of companies will need to store their stocks.

According to Bloomberg News, he told the retail giants Walmart and Target Trump at a meeting last week that shoppers may see empty shelves and higher prices than next month. They also warned that the shocks of the display could go to Christmas.

Electronic devices, such as televisions and washing machines, constituted 46.4 percent of American imports from China in 2022. The United States also imports many of its ingredients for clothes and pharmaceutical products from China. The price of these goods will start to rise next month.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised inflation forecasts in the United States to 3 percent in 2025, due to the customs tariff – a full percentage of higher than it was in January. The lender also reduced the expectations of economic growth in the United States and its expectation that the United States will move to recession this year.

How will the China economy be affected?

Despite the increasing tensions between the United States and China, Washington and Beijing are still major commercial partners.

According to the US Trade Representative Office, the United States imported $ 438.9BN In Chinese goods last year.

This reaches about 3 percent of the total economic product in China, which still depends on exports.

In a joint report with his clients this month, Goldman Sachs said that he expected the Chinese Trump tariff (GDP) to fall by 2.4 points.

For their part, senior officials in China said that the country can dispense with US farm and energy imports and promised to achieve the goal of 5 percent local GDP growth for this year.

Zhao Chenixin, Vice -Chairman of the National Development and Reform Committee, said that in addition to non -American imports, the production of local farms and energy will be sufficient to fulfill the demand.

“Even if we do not buy pills and oil seeds from the United States, it will not have a significant impact on the grain supply in our country,” said Zhao on Monday.

He also indicated that there will be a limited impact on energy supply in China if companies stop importing American fossil fuels.

Experts said in some respects that China is preparing for this crisis.

“The United States is one of the largest export markets in China, so the definitions will slow down the growth of GDP. But Beijing has played this intelligently as it has begun to diversify its imports away from the United States during the first trade war Trump” in 2018, “Fortunato told Al Jazerara:

He also pointed out that “the United States depends on China for up to 60 percent of Critical minerals Imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow is simply not there, so the United States is more likely to be risk. “

Can the United States lose its geopolitical position?

Trump did not hide a little of his desire to recruit the allies in a commercial war. The administration said it aims to conclude free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.

In general, reports indicate that Washington requires commercial partners to alleviate their economic relations with China as a prior condition to secure relief from Trump’s “mutual” tariff.

However, US allies seem to be largely opposed to any economic confrontation with China. Last week, the European Commission said it did not intend to “break the bond” from China.

Elsewhere, the UK Treasury Adviser Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph: “China is the second largest economy in the world, and it will believe that it is very foolish not to participate.”

Many countries are not in a position that allows them to abandon their commercial relations with Beijing. The European Union, in particular, has a major trade deficit with China. Cutting access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs of the industry – would already lie its slow economy.

Throughout the developing world, the commercial role of China is equally important. Nearly a quarter of the imports of Bangladesh and Cambodia come from China. Nigeria and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for Commodity Imports.

“It is difficult to see why countries want to undermine their commercial interests by trying to reduce the trade deficit of America with China,” said Fortonato. “On this point, I think Trump was short -sighted and might be forced to first reduce the customs tariff with China.”

Does Trump lose his grip on Republican voters?

The Chinese Communist Party does not need to be concerned about its upcoming electoral session. Trump’s Republican Party is doing, so Beijing has the highest political hand in the Tramp war. Simply put, she has more time alongside her.

For Trump’s party, Qa’a Cirah is already a political cost. new Economist-Yugov The poll shows that the Americans who reported Trump’s economic actions have been more severely harmful to them than a margin of 30 points.

The general approval of the president’s economic administration was low for a period of time: it decreased to 37 percent in A. Reuters-Barbas poll Posted on March 31, his lowest degree ever in this poll.

Experts said that if Trump remains the path, it is possible that his approval categories will fall, which endangers the freshener of the Republican Party in danger in the US House of Representatives – and perhaps the Senate.

“For these reasons,” Fortunato said, “China does not feel forced to rush to the negotiating table to secure a commercial deal. This may decrease against Trump.”