Trump’s economic and political threat to Mexico

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Mexico will learn its fate after a day of April. Donald Trump called on April 2, “Editing Day”. For Mexicans, this will be the moment when they discover the economic damage that Trump is planning to inflict their country.

It is possible that a lot of the global economy will be announced through the customs tariff that America announces on April 2. But the risks are especially high for Mexico, which sends 80 percent of its exports to the United States. Trump has already imposed 25 percent of the customs tariff on both Canada and Mexico. About half of these new duties were suspended quickly. But they can all be re -imposed next week.

The fate of Mexico is worth seeing for two main reasons. First, the unusual dependence of the economy on exports to the United States means that social and political stability in Mexico is at stake. Mexican economists believe that at the worst scenario, Trump’s tariff will lead to depression in their country.

The second reason is that Mexico provides a test case for how to deal with Trump. While Canada returned to we Through the difficult conversation and mutual definitions, Mexico President Claudia Shinboma played Latifa. She confirmed her respect for Trump, and she is currently refraining from imposing revenge definitions. Xinbom also has also agreed to send 10,000 additional soldiers to guard the US Mexican border and deport 29 high -level drug carclists to America.

Shinbum was rewarded by Trump, who was called “Wonderful Woman”. It also has high opinion polls at home. At the international level, it was considered an example of how to deal with Trump’s smarters, as the New York Times has extended with its unrealistic and economic pragmies that revive its “diplomat”.

Reality is more complicated. As Louis de la Kali, a leading economist, Indicate For me in Mexico City last week, Canada and Mexico It has been dealt with so far by the Trump administration. Shinbom’s critics also say it destroys the Mexican economy and future investment by moving forward in a plan to dismiss all the country’s judges and replace it with elected officials.

With a local economy that is already struggling, Shinabum strongly needs Trump to reduce her break. Unfortunately for Mexico, Trump’s grievances go beyond trade.

Last month, the White House stressed: “Mexican drug smuggling organizations are an unbearable alliance with the Mexico government.” Joshua Treviño from the First Institute of Politics for America Stuck In order to agree that this statement was “a seismic permit exposure to a new era of confrontation between the two countries.”

There is a serious discussion in the Republican circles on whether the United States should use military force to strike drug cartals inside Mexico. This month, the defense priorities, another influential thinking center in the Trump world, warned: “Mexican bomb” is increasing as a border security policy. This will be a serious mistake.

The damage caused by the carts to Mexican society highlights the terrible discovery of “Geniery Camp” In the countryside where the kidnapped recruits of the organized crime gang seemed to have been killed. More than 100,000 people are lost in Mexico, and many believe that they are victims of karrat.

But unilateral US military strikes against the cartals – while they may derive chants from the Trump base – will put the Mexican government in an impossible position. They also risk attracting the United States to another open -party conflict without attacking the root causes of the problem, which includes the flow of weapons from the United States to Mexico and America’s demand for drugs.

By noting that the customs tariff is the appropriate tool for dealing with drugs, illegal immigration and trade simultaneously, making Trump difficult for Mexico to formulate a logical response. So, Shinbom is left trying to humor and expel the American president, while he hopes to distract his attention or his advisers make him see a reason.

The fact is that the definitions will undermine the most advanced parts of the economy of Mexico and make the country poorer. The vortex of anti -democratic and popular landing, with increased strength of organized crime and the leadership of more Mexicans to try to cross into the United States.

The greatest hope in Mexico is that the United States itself will retract the common pain caused by the tariff war. Americans rely on cheap and reliable supplies from Mexico for everything from fruits and vegetables to auto parts and medical equipment. High inflation will be rapidly in the United States, while returning the promised industry in America will be a long time to come, if this happens at all.

It is clear that his southern neighbor in America and the largest commercial partner is a bad idea – for the United States and Mexico itself. Unfortunately, this is not a guarantee that it will not happen.

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