Trump warns that “all hell will break loose” if hostages in Gaza are not released

President-elect Donald J. Trump said Tuesday that “all hell will break loose in the Middle East” if hostages held by Hamas are not released by Inauguration Day, repeating the threat four times during a wide-ranging news conference at the State House. Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

“If they don’t come back by the time I take office, all hell will break loose in the Middle East,” he told reporters. “This will not be in the interest of Hamas, and it will not be in the interest of anyone, frankly.” All hell will break loose. “There’s no need to say more, but that’s what it is.”

Mr. Trump did not say what actions he might take if the hostages are not released by the time he takes office. He declined to provide details about what he or his advisers are doing in the days leading up to the inauguration. Officials say about 100 hostages, including some Americans, who were captured on October 7, 2023, are still being held in Gaza, although they believe many of them may have died in captivity.

“They should have never taken them,” Trump told reporters. “There was never supposed to be an attack on October 7th. People forget that. But there were, and a lot of people were killed.”

President Biden and his senior national security aides have been working for months to try to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages. The deal appeared close several times, but collapsed after what Biden administration officials said was rejected by Hamas negotiators. Israeli officials also objected to some parts of the proposed deals.

During his statements, Mr. Trump indicated that his threats against Hamas would lead to the group’s decline. But experts in Middle East affairs find it difficult to understand the meaning of Trump’s threats.

Daniel C. said: Kurtzer, US ambassador to Israel during the George W. Bush administration: “I have no idea, and neither does he.”

Over the past 15 months, the Israeli army has nearly destroyed Hamas as an organized fighting force. It is unclear what any escalated attacks by the incoming Trump administration, or Israel, could achieve.

“I don’t see any scenario where US forces would be involved; Mr. Kurtzer added: “In any case, we have no better idea than the Israelis about what could put pressure on Hamas.” “Threats and intimidation are the worst forms of politics.”

Aaron David Miller, an analyst and former State Department negotiator for the Middle East, said it was unclear what Trump could do if the hostages were not released by the deadline. He wondered whether Mr. Trump could persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach an agreement.

“Trump will never be able to inflict more pain on Hamas and the Palestinians than Israel has already done,” Miller said. “He has influence over Netanyahu. But will he really use it to pressure Israel to agree to the terms of a deal that might seem beneficial to Hamas?

At some point on Tuesday, the president-elect invited Steve Witkoff, whom he intends to appoint as his envoy to the Middle East, to speak to reporters. Mr. Witkoff said negotiators were “making a lot of progress,” but did not provide details.

“And I don’t want to say too much, because I think they’re doing a really good job,” Mr. Witkoff said. “I really hope that by the inauguration we will have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.”

Mr. Witkoff appeared to praise the Biden administration’s efforts, saying: “I actually think we’re working together in a really good way.” But he also singled out Mr. Trump, saying it was the president-elect’s “stature” and “the red lines he put there that are driving these negotiations.”

Mr. Witkopf added that he would “leave tomorrow” to return to Doha, where delegations from Israel and Hamas are negotiating through Qatari mediators. It was not clear what role, if any, Mr. Witkoff played in those conversations.

The reality of changing administrations in the United States has complicated recent efforts by Mr. Biden and his advisers to reach an agreement to release the hostages. The families of those still detained have urged Biden and Trump officials to work together to achieve this goal.

Biden’s national security officials said they were keeping their Trump counterparts fully informed of the negotiations. Members of both groups appear to be aligned behind the same goal: exploiting the inauguration deadline to pressure Hamas to release everyone it holds.

But if the release occurs, the two administrations are likely to be starkly divided over who deserves the credit.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff’s comments on Tuesday appeared to be designed at least in part so that the president-elect could claim credit for his release if it happened just before he took office. Mr. Witkoff told reporters that he believes Hamas is listening to Mr. Trump.

“He urges us to speak categorically, and he means categorically that you better understand this — you better do this,” he said, adding that Hamas is not waiting for Mr. Trump to take office. I think they heard it loud and clear. “It is best to do this before opening.”

Aides to Mr. Biden said that Mr. Witkoff and Brett McGurk, the Biden administration’s chief negotiator, were speaking regularly and that the discussions were “constructive” and “appropriate.” Mr. McGurk was the main negotiator working to reach an agreement between the two sides.

This call shows that “the Biden and Trump teams are much more coordinated than, say, the Obama and Trump teams were in late 2016 and early 2017,” said Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

But Biden officials said progress toward an agreement is the result of months of painstaking discussions and intense Israeli bombing of Hamas.

The Israeli bombing of Gaza – which has come under intense scrutiny from many parts of the world because it has killed tens of thousands of people – has severely damaged Hamas and killed most of its leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and the masterminds of the October 7 attacks. . Biden officials say that Israeli strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased Hamas’ isolation.

They also point out that the deal now under consideration with Hamas is based on the agreement that Mr. Biden presented to Israel and Hamas in May, which was later approved by the United Nations Security Council.

Mr. Miller said it would be unusual for a member of the incoming administration, like Mr. Witkoff, to be a direct part of sensitive negotiations with foreign countries.

“It’s amazing that he said today: ‘We’re making progress,'” Miller said, referring to Mr. Witkoff. He inserted himself – as Trump did – into a negotiating process owned by the Biden administration in which they have no official role. And of course they set the stage for claiming credit for the deal when it happens.