Trump, definitions and Carne: Canada poll

Although the Canadian elections began seriously in late last month, public opinion polls have seized a political novel that has been swept since the beginning of the year.

Between President Trump’s trade war, his threats to annexation and the resignation of the last prime minister in Canada, a lot occurred in the period before this race to form what voters feel.

The elections will take place on April 28, so there is time to change things, but the New York Times reviewed the available public opinion polls, and examined them closely for quality and consistency.

Trump continues to use a significant effect.

When Mr. Trump began a trade war The threat of the nation began In early February, the most famous of the polling trends was reversed: support to the liberals and reduced the conservatives.

Within only eight weeks, the progress of the Conservative Party, who numbered more than 20 points, has disappeared, and now the liberals are making the ballot boxes Six percentage points.

Canadians were constantly cited tensions with the United States K. The most important issue Confronting the country. Among the voters who turned their intended support this year from another party to the liberal party, 51 percent said that Mr. Trump’s actions were one of the two best reason to do so, According to a recent poll from the Angus Reed Institute.

A new leader brings momentum.

Liberalists also benefit from a new face. Prime Minister Mark Carney leads the party after winning the race to replace former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced plans to resign in January and seized last month.

The Angus Reed poll found himself a larger-56 percent share-from the followers of the parties saying that Mr. Carney was one of the two best reasons because they were turning their support to the liberals.

Mr. Carney is the only national party leader who classified the preference – the percentage of voters who love him is minus those who say they do not do it – currently positive, and his popularity exceeds the size of his party itself.

in Angus Reed poll Since late March, 54 percent of Canadians have had a positive view of Mr. Carney, compared to 35 percent of the Conservative Party leader, Pierre Boelifri, and 33 percent of Ljghamit Singh, leader of the new left -wing Democratic Party, or that the National Democratic Party also preferred to be preferred by the minister.

Eric Greener, Canadian polling analyst who runs BookElection analysis site. “And if Trump is not there, I don’t think Carney will get the same numbers.”

Conservatives do not do this bad. The liberals do it well.

With a multi -letter parliamentary system like Canada, any one party to associate with 40 percent of popular vote has a truly strong chance to secure the majority government. Currently, the liberals are voting, on average, about 44 percent, according to Track a CBC poll, While conservatives sit 38 percent. In previous sessions, the conservatives won the authority With a similar share of supportBut in those elections, voters were divided on the left.

The liberal party managed to unify support on the left at the expense of other parties. While the liberals recovered in opinion polls, the support of the National Democratic Party has been drowned to some lower levels for decades.

“There was always voters” ABC ” -” anything but the conservative ” – but the movement is marginal,” said Philip Furnieh, who runs the 338canada elections site. “Not this time.”

Conservatives lose support even between the basic population composition.

One of the prominent demographic shifts in opinion polls recently was that younger voters in Canada had separated from the conservatives.

Playing from Liger In late March, the Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34 were found preferring the liberals from the liberals from 39 to 37 percent, while Some opinion polls They showed young voters who prefer conservatives by up to 10 degrees Celsius.

Over the past two years, Mr. Poilievre has made gains in this group, especially among young people, in part because it made a change from the current situation, which many young Canadians feel that they are not working for their benefit.

Indeed, while Canadians over 50 years old were martyred in the ongoing commercial war as the supreme issue facing the country, Those under the age of 50 were probably To refer to other issues, such as the cost of living, such as their highest worry. Likewise, as in the United States, there is a gender gap, with men more likely than women to support conservatives.

But these gaps shrink in almost every group Angus Reed.

Support among men is now almost equally divided, in the latest opinion poll, as 44 percent of men say they are planning a conservative vote compared to 42 percent who say they are planning a liberal vote.

One group of both sexes-men between 35 to 54 years-had a multiplicity poll that is clearly preferred to the Conservative Party, but this gap is also narrowed.