There is now a very small space for the sub -text or suspicion. Relations between the United States and Russia will include “enormous economic deals” as part of the broader normalization of diplomatic affairs between Moscow and Washington.
This optimistic phrase, which was shipped by the turbine through the expression of “the huge upward trend”, was part of the White House Summary of the invitation on Tuesday Between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
What started as a proposal-Will relief from sanctions on the table would be if Trump helps to resolve the war on Ukraine? The stable conclusion of hostility, whether it is a ceasefire or a more detailed peace agreement, would put an end to Russia’s economic isolation.
To be clear, this step is more suspended than it is proposed to read the White House breathing for the two -hour call between Trump and Putin. The United States is not the only country that punishes Russia politically and economically. But this is our most clearer statement on Washington’s intentions. More than a few American companies will take this message and manage it.
The business community began to imagine a world without sanctions against Russia when Trump won the November 2024 elections. He carried a campaign to end the war in Ukraine, which led to questions about the longevity of the sanctions imposed after Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. History shows that sanctions are easy to age and then fame. The United States has been punishing Cuba since 1962.
But the Trump campaign pledges to gain a certain amount of momentum. The conversations to end the war began seriously through a phone call between Trump and Putin in February. Shortly later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Riyadh. When they left the talks, they generally spoke to the broader commercial participation between the two countries.
Each of these moves intensified the discussion between American companies that left Russia three years ago. Should we return? Some companies Conducting a conversation.
Hundreds of Western companies, including some of the most prominent brands in the United States, He left Russia After the start of the invasion on a large scale. Some have left because the sanctions made them illegal to do commercial businesses there. Others have left because their shareholders, customers, or employees will not support the practice of business or with the nation of the aggressor. The vast public campaigns to name Western companies and their shame in Russia helped focus the minds of executives in the United States and around the world.
Trump’s dialogue on Tuesday will intensify deliberations within American companies. For some of them, relief from sanctions is the only green light they need to return to Russia. But the end of the penalties is not the end of the discussion. It should be the beginning.
As a call on Tuesday showed, Putin is not in a hurry to end the war. Its strategic goal continues to completely disrupt Ukrainian sovereignty. While Trump and Putin are negotiating with “unconditional shooting”, Putin only adds circumstances. These conversations will not end soon.
If they do so, companies that are considering returning to Russia will find a large country that is very different from those they left. The war on Ukraine continued for a longer period than anyone expected – enough to see a number of important transformations on the ground in Russia.
Among these changes is the emergence of a new commercial elite now in their possession not only in favor of a great politician, but also for many of the western origins that have been sold or “re -allocated” their former owners. Certainly, some American companies have introduced the conditions for purchase in their exits from Russia, but it is worth questioning the durability of these agreements.
The market has also changed. While the West was far away, companies from uncomplicated countries came. Russian car agents once sell Volkswagens and Tiutas, among other things, cheerful Chinese models.
The law has changed on the ground in Russia as well. Intellectual property law, for example, It was removed. Russian pharmaceutical companies now have governmental licenses to produce injecting supplies, in a complete violation of the Novo Nordic patent on the medicine.
Novo Nordsk Of course, a Danish company, and the relations between Europe and Russia are still hostile. This raises other complications: If the United States is determined to lift sanctions, but Europe is still in the position of punishment, how will companies navigate in an unequal sanctions environment? European Union sanctions can be stumbled, of course. It depends on unanimous periodic renewal sounds.
Finally, the American business community will want to know whether Trump’s ambitious expectations of normal life with Russia will include the background. The political risk insurance of companies belonging to Russia will be expensive, if they are at all available. Will the White House work as an insurance company for the last resort, and throws its political weight behind American companies if the conditions deteriorate again?
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