- The aggressive tariff campaign for President Donald Trump It creates doubts about the attractiveness and safety of American origins. But there are still some who believe that the United States will produce the best returns, despite epic sale and signs of changing global order. This is partly due to America’s dominance of critical techniques.
It has lost the idea of ”American exceptional” in the global economy and financial markets quickly this year, as President Donald Trump begins an aggressive introductory campaign that creates doubts about American assets.
The stocks suffered from an epic collapse and did not partially recover. Dollar and treasury bonds The loss of their safe place. the The economy may slip into the recessionThe height of the debts may start overcoming “Excessive Franching” Enjoy the United States, and The world was really facing confidence issues with America.
In contrast, the markets in China and Europe were outperforming the relative performance this year after years of delay behind the United States.
But there are still some veterans in the market who believe that the United States is the right place, partly due to America’s dominance of critical innovations.
“Technology that surpasses definitions”
Nouriel Roubini, economist and CEO of Consultance Roubini Macro Associates, believes that “Tech Trumps Driffs” in the short and medium term.
The United States is proud of leadership in the main technologies and industries, so it does not matter who is the president, wrote in a Post on x on Thursday. Meanwhile, China comes in a “nearby second”, and Europe is completely outside the picture.
Roubini estimates that technical innovations will increase possible growth in the United States by 200 basis points from 2 % to 4 % by 2030, while customs tariffs will decrease growth by 50 basis points, even on the assumption of a average permanent rate of 15 % after negotiations.
“Thus technology outperforms the definitions, even if Mickey Mouse or a clown runs the United States!”
An important part of the Roubini thesis is that the nature of innovation itself turns from the production of “primary growth boom that fades over time” to the essential growth that accelerates and gives permanent allocations against followers.
He referred to the Deepseek model of artificial intelligence that shocked Silicon Valley earlier this year, saying it is not a revolution but rather a development that owes its existence to American companies such as Openai and its huge years.
He added: “MAG-7, Hyperscalers and technology companies (on the NASDAC Stock Exchange) cannot be interested in definitions.” “They must continue and increase the huge capex from artificial intelligence to avoid outdated to each other.”
“Stay at home”
Meanwhile, Ed Yardini said that if Trump’s tariff caused a recession, the United States will suffer from international markets and economies.
“Although some of the major allocations to the main international markets may be justified during a long -term time horizon, we are committed to investing our stay at home He wrote in a note early on Wednesday.
This came before Trump put a 90 -day stoppage period on the “mutual tariff” on Wednesday afternoon and Friday night exemptions on technology imports. But Trump warned on Sunday that the definitions would eventually be hit “Full electronic supply chain.”
However, the United States has full employment, which is a net energy source, and has a flexible economy that depends on services, with productivity growth is strong enough to excel the pressure from reorganizing the supply chain and less migration.
On the other hand, the export -based growth strategy in China may not work without the request of the United States, while manufacturers in Germany are crushed by China.
“The United States has a lot of positivity to go to it.”
Then Mark Dylani, the chief investment employee of Australiansuper, who runs 223 billion dollars of assets.
he He said Financial times On Tuesday, the United States is still the most attractive region for long -term investments, and even acknowledged that the Trump tariff was “a big event in volatility.”
In fact, he has not reduced his funds in the United States in recent weeks, and more than half of the international holdings are still in Australians.
“The United States has a lot of positivity – the increased economic performance (although it has been given a little), strong productivity growth, strong profit growth, and any action, many of the best companies in the world – make it an attractive place to store capital.” foot.
Although global trade flows can be raised through definitions, companies in which investment will be probably affected.
This is because the customs tariff targets goods instead of services – so far – although any escalation in the trade war may eventually strike these as well.
“Look at the main property of any investor,” said Dylani. “There are not many goods, mostly services, this is the way the global economy has evolved.”
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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