The United States intensifies an attempt to end the Ukraine war

The pace of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine is accelerating.

The talks are taking place in London between UK, Germany, France, Ukraine and the United States. Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Wittouf is heading to Moscow for his fourth meeting with President Putin.

However, there is little clarity about the place where these efforts are heading or whether it will succeed.

Not long ago, the American plan to end the fighting in Ukraine was clear.

There will be a 30 -day immediate unlawful shooting, followed by long -term conversations to create a permanent settlement of war.

Ukraine agreed to this, and we crossed pressure from the United States – which made a great privilege; It will no longer require the promise of long -term security guarantees before any hostility.

But Russia refused to play the ball, and insisted that it is no end to fight until a whole series of circumstances would be fulfilled.

In particular, Vladimir Putin said that the “root causes” of the war had to be addressed, and it is his fears of the NATO alliance and the existence of Ukraine itself as a sovereign country that represents a threat to Russia’s security in some way.

The United States accepted the hypothesis of this Russian argument and is now deep in the pillars of a potential ceasefire proposal.

In recent days, there have been many leaks about the latest American ideas, which are disputed in the position of diplomats.

But it seems that there is a framework on the following lines: Russia will stop invading it along the current lines, and it will give up its ambition to control the remaining parts of the four regions in eastern Ukraine, which has not yet occupied it, which is Luhansk, Donitsk, Zaburisha, and Tabron.

On the other hand, the United States will accept the four occupied territories by the rule, as controlled by Russian.

The Crimea – which was illegally included by Russia in 2014 – will also know Russian deals. The United States will also ensure the exclusion of Ukraine joining NATO.

As part of this plan, the United States may also control the controversial nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzia – currently in the hands of Russian – and electricity feeding both parts of Ukrainian lands.

After that, this proposal will be supported by the threat of the United States – as well as President Trump and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio – that he will give up negotiations if there is no immediate agreement.

At first glance, this proposal appears to be unlikely to succeed.

President Zelinski has already made it clear that Ukraine will not give up that the Crimea is Russian sovereignty.

Even if he wants to do this, he cannot first require a referendum for the Ukrainian people.

European powers have made it clear that they would not accept Russian sovereignty over the Crimea, which would violate international legal standards after the war that the borders should not be changed by military power.

Legal experts say that there are even technical issues about the United States that recognize the Crimea because of some of the laws approved by the US Congress.

But despite this, Western diplomats do not reject the plan. “There is a landing space,” one of them told me. “It is just a matter of whether there is sufficient confidence between the two parties to move forward.”

They say this because the proposed deal, as leaked so far, contains huge gaps.

There is no indication of any ban on Western countries that continue to rearmaize Ukraine, which was in the past a red line for Russia.

There is no indication, Russia’s demands for Ukraine to be “distributed”, in other words that its army be dramatically reduced in size, again Moscow’s long -term request.

Under the deal, Ukraine may not be allowed to join NATO but may join the European Union.

There is no clear objection to the European “power of reassurance” that is spreading in western Ukraine after any ceasefire to deter Russian aggression in the future.

But it is still unclear whether the United States is ready to provide a “successor” of this force. There is also an uncertainty about economic sanctions against Russia that will be lifted and when and under any circumstances.

In other words, there is a large number of details that are unclear and still can be discussed.

It appears that all parties are far apart.

Ukraine still wants to stop the instant police shooting and then speak. The United States wants a quick victory. Russia wants to deepen the details of the peace agreement, which usually takes months if not years.

There is an old Russian who says that “nothing agreed upon until everything is agreed.” Now we seem far from that.