The United States and Iran are still far apart before nuclear talks

Donald Trump is a man in a hurry.

In the few months, he was in office, and the American president sought peace to Gaza and Ukraine. He bombed Yemen. He launched a global trade war. Now he turns his attention, so that, to Iran.

This was always on the president’s job list. For Trump, Iran is an incomplete act of its first term.

The problem remains as it was at the time: What could prevent Iran from seeking a nuclear weapon?

Iran denies that it has any such ambition. But other countries believe that the Islamic Republic wants at least the ability to build a nuclear warhead, or the desire to raise some fear of arms race or even a comprehensive war in the Middle East.

In 2015, Iran agreed to an agreement with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China. It was called the joint comprehensive work plan (JCPOA).

Under its provisions, Iran will shorten its nuclear ambitions – and allow international inspectors – in exchange for economic sanctions.

But Trump removed the United States from the deal in 2018, claiming that it was equivalent to terrorism by financing the Iranian agent, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The United States is re -imposed.

Iran later ignored some restrictions of the deal and affected more and more uranium nuclear fuel.

Analysts fear that Iran can have enough first -class uranium to make a nuclear warhead.

The IAEA International Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that Iran’s 60 % stock of enriched uranium can be made about six bombs if fertilized to the next and final level.

Within days of his inauguration, Trump regained his prior policy of the so -called “maximum pressure” on Iran.

On February 4, with his fat -of -fat pen, a memorandum was signed by the US Treasury to impose more sanctions on Iran and punish countries that violate the current sanctions, especially those who buy Iranian oil.

Now the White House hopes to match this economic pressure with diplomacy.

Last month, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khawni.

The president presented the start of negotiations and requested a deal within two months.

Now he agreed to Direct discussions between us and Iranian officials in Amman at the weekend.

The US threat to Iran is explicit: agreed on a deal or confronting military action.

“If the talks do not succeed with Iran, I think Iran will be in great danger,” Trump said on Monday.

How can Iran respond?

Some policy makers in Tehran seem to be keen to agree to a deal that may obtain sanctions.

The Iranian economy is in a terrible strait, with high inflation and sunken currency.

But any such deal may include concessions that may find some militants that are difficult to find the stomach.

Iran has suffered from huge repercussions in recent months, as its militia saw the agent weakening severely due to the war with Israel and its regional ally, President Bashar al -Assad from Syria. Some people are now arguing exactly time to build a nuclear deterrent.

Both the United States and Iran seem far away. Their negotiation sites are not clear.

But the United States has made it clear that it wants to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, including a full end of any enrichment of more uranium, as well as any additional support for the Hoose God in Lebanon and the Hathlemen in Yemen.

This may prove a lot for Iran to accept it.

A long time ago, a full ban on any nuclear enrichment – even for civil purposes – is seen as a divorced red line for Tehran.

There is also the problem of Iranian technological experience: its scientists simply know more about how to make a nuclear weapon more than they did 10 years ago.

As for Israel, he made it clear that it would only accept the full end of any Iranian nuclear capacity. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will agree to “the way he was in Libya.”

This is a reference to the decision of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to dismantle his entire nuclear program in 2003 in exchange for lifting the sanctions.

But Iran is unlikely to follow this previous.

What if the conversations fail?

Israel has long looked at military options to try to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities. But a lot is buried in the depths of the underground warehouses.

Military analysts say that Israel will not only need the help of Iran, as it may also need special forces on the ground to ensure the destruction of its nuclear facilities.

This means that the military action will be fraught with risks and ensuring its success in any way.

Trump also came to the office a promise not to start, that is, the so -called “wars forever”, and the comprehensive regional conflict that includes Iran can become one of these.

This did not prevent the American president from giving Israel more air defenses and deploying more long -term B2 bombers to the region.

Therefore, at the present time, it seems that Trump is looking for a diplomatic solution – Israel may have to accept it as an explanation leader, regardless of its rulings.

But if there is no agreement, it reserves the right to use force, whose consequences can be devastating.

Meanwhile, the president allows two months for both sides to agree to a deal.

He may have forgotten that it took two years negotiations to agree on JCPOA. Furniture diplomacy is not always a successful diplomacy.