The Sudan war comes a complete circle

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The war in Sudan returned to where it caught for the first time two years ago: in a battle for the center of the city of Khartoum.

Days after the clashes, the sincere forces regained the President General Abd al -Fah al -Fahn, the presidential palace on Friday, from the former allies in the semi -military rapid support forces. The army (SAF) has since continued to seize other official buildings, including the central bank – on the occasion of a possible turning point in the war.

Restore the presidential palace caps for several months in any momentum in SudanCivil war swings decisively in favor of SAF. If the army is able to unify control of Khartoum, General Paoran will be allowed to stabilize a transitional government and try to obtain wider international recognition.

But it is also a moment of the great danger to General Paheran and Sudan, as the RSF victory this weekend in the western region of Darfur confirmed the danger of actual division.

“The symbolic value and the political traction that the army can obtain from regaining control of the capital is great,” said Suleiman Balddo, an expert in resolving veteran conflicts that manages transparency in Sudan and flexible politics.

The soldiers celebrate the shattered windows and the bombs burned, which is a testimony of the terrible outcome of the fighting on the capital.

And Baldo said: “There is nothing for people to return to the walls of their homes.”

The war broke out in 2023 in the center of Khartoum after a struggle for power between the army and RSF, which was accused by the leader of Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemti, as genocide by the United States.

Before they turned their rifles on each other, the two sides joined the forces to overthrow the transitional government, which was formed on the back of a revolution in the street that ended three decades of rule by Omar Al -Bashaer in 2019.

In the opening months of the war, the army suffered from defeat after the defeat, and eventually withdrew to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. But since last September, it has regained land spaces and most of the capital.

The momentum was swinging in favor of the army thanks to an alliance with the Islamic brigades that supported the previous regime, re -supply heavy weapons, and parts of RSF, according to experts. RSF’s low morale was a factor.

“They were very successful in re -deporting themselves, re -supplying air force with drones from Turkey, Chinese and Russian fighter aircraft,” said Cameron Hudson, an expert in the Africa Century and “Horn in Africa” ​​program in the “Camera of Africa”, “Cameraton”, “Cameraton” and “Cameraton”, an expert in Horne Africa.

But the struggle for Khartoum has not yet ended. On Friday, an anti -RSF anti -RSF attack claimed the lives of the senior spokesman for the army and other soldiers in the palace, while the resistance continues in parts of the south of the city.

Meanwhile, it was reported that the RSF swept a position outside in North Darfur, which led to the cutting of the supply line to the army’s allies in the besieged city of Al -Fashir and an affirmation of its survival before Sudan.

“If the army regains control of all Khartum, this is not necessarily good for the future of Sudan because they do not care about Darfur,” said Nour Babicker, the exiled politician of the opposition Sudanese Congress Party.

He was hinting at the fears that the army, which was controlling the capital, might be unwilling or unable to follow the battle to the provinces in the West. With the presence of khartoum on hand, the incentive on SAF may reduce negotiation, which increases the risk of the country’s appearance.

This is also a moment of the great danger of civilians. More than 12 million of Sudan’s 50 million people were displaced due to the war, and in some areas, famine is established.

The atrocities were committed by both sides. In recent months, SAF and its militia’s allies have been accused of ethnically targeted killing in the areas that have been restored. RSF, born from the Arab militia “Janjaweed” accused of war crimes in the previous Darfur wars, imposed terrible losses when they withdraw.

Hudson said: “It is their pattern for accurate progress to the population while they are retreating,” Hudson said.

The immediate challenge of General Perhran is to start restoring the system and services to a city stripped of naked and ensuring that food, water and other provisions that the displaced residents begin to return.

Another dilemma is how to obtain international support required for reconstruction with all the varying forces under its slogan. Princess was triumphed by hard -line Islamist supporters in the previous regime, who keep support between parts of the population.

But neither Western governments, nor Egyptian and Saudi allies in SAF in the Middle East, want to see their return to the government. The packed to them, however, can provoke a strong violent reaction.

Baldo said: “I do not expect to collapse now because the war has not ended yet,” Baldo said. “But it is only a matter of time.”

Map drawing by Cleef Jones