The Russian Kremlin says it will suffer from a global trade war

Russia has escaped safely from the commercial definitions of President Donald Trump, which was unveiled earlier this month, but the Kremlin says that Moscow is not immune from the final economic tremors that could result in a possible global trade war.

“Of course, instability in the global economy cannot affect Russia,” Kremlin’s secretary Dmitry Peskov told CNBC on Wednesday.

“At the same time, we were able to maintain the stability of the total economy even in the face of many sanctions,” Peskov added in the comments via email.

Unlike many American allies who were subjected to commercial definitions in the Trump Declaration early April, Russia has survived a new import tariff when Trump announced the list of wide new duties that will be imposed on imports from more than 180 countries, which seems outwardly to raise the level of the global trading field.

Russia was excluded, White House press secretary Caroline Levit told AXios mediaBecause the US sanctions on the country invaded Ukraine in 2022 have already prevented a “meaningful trade” between the two countries.

Analysts are asking that confirmation, saying that Russia is still making more trade with the United States than a number of other countries that have reached the list of definitions, such as Brunei and Mauritius. Ukraine, by the way, had a 10 % tariff.

A White House official told CNBC on Thursday that Russia, along with Cuba, Blasusia and North Korea, “is not subject to the executive matter of mutual tariffs because it is already facing a very high tariff and that our previously imposed sanctions prevent any significant trade with these countries.” The official added that President Trump recently threatened to impose strong sanctions on Russia.

Global market Trump’s disorder has paid temporarily reduced tariff rates On imports from most countries – with the exception of China – to 10 % for 90 days. Whether the negotiations that occur with various commercial partners in the meantime can lead to a compromise, and ultimately, commercial deals are very uncertain.

Russia’s reaction to Trump’s commercial duties has been mixed, noting the government media and market repercussions with a mixture of great separation, some concern about global economic fluctuations and a touch of Schadenfreud in the turmoil that strikes the West.

Analysts say that Trump’s destabilization of the United States-led global system-which Moscow wants to dismantle-is also seen as a possible advantage of definitions of the Kremlin. They warn that Russia is not immune to the impact of any trade war.

“On the surface, a lot of real laughter and satisfaction (in Russia) see that, for once, it is not Russia that is at the center of attention,” noting that “Russia does not see itself in a better position in the world through the most obvious Bollar.”

He said in the comments via e -mail: “Russia wants the least universal that participates in a permanent conflict with China (if not the war), so that Washington does not have enough time for Europe,” he said in the comments.

Barbachene said that two schools of thought have appeared in Russia – one of which realizes the damage that the country’s trade war could cause, and the other admits that the economically weak competitors benefit geopolitical Russia.

“Russia still depends on the global economy and the high demand for its exports. If the global recession is its followers, it may seriously harm Russia’s pockets. However, there is another level of analysis in Russia indicating that … the more damage the relationship in the Atlantic, it will be easy for Moscow to divide Europe on issues related to the prevention of Ocreen.”

According to the formula used to determine the definitions of commercial partners, Russia should have faced a 40 % tariff, based on 2024 numbers. However, Collener noticed that in recent years before the war, Russia and the United States enjoyed A relatively balanced tradeThis means that Russia instead struck a 10 % tariff rate.

On Thursday, CNBC told CNBC that if there is a desire for the White House to use the customs tariff as a means of urging Moscow in peace negotiations on Ukraine, “this is an illusion.”

“The size of (trade) is very small, and even before the war, the United States was not an important commercial partner in Russia compared to places such as the European Union, Türkiye, China or India.”

“Russia does not need some technological things from the United States, such as Boeing Parts (aircraft), for example. Regardless of Tungstin and Titanium, Russia has very little to its progress to the United States that is not flexible, in other words, which cannot be purchased elsewhere. So I don’t think commercial adjustments can be covered with a war station.”

The World Trade Organization warned on Wednesday The global trade expectations may “deteriorate” in the wake of the Trump tariff system.

Based on the currently in place duties, including a 90 -day suspension of “mutual tariff”, the global goods trade is now expected to decrease by 0.2 % in 2025, the World Trade Organization said. He added that global economic growth will get a direct decrease in global trading volumes.

Even if Russia is not a direct goal, it is certain that it suffers from side effects of customs tariffs and potential commercial war, and analysts agree, with low prices and demand for global export supplies for the main oil in Russia.

Russia is already working under great domestic inflation – which reached 10.3 % annually in March – the country’s central bank has maintained high 21 % high interest rates in an attempt Dealing with war pressures of war.

“If the trade war pushes the global economy to recession, especially if the total trade decreases, which means that the number of goods is low around the world, and this means that the demand for oil will also decrease if there is a stagnation, which is painful for Russia,” Colarander told CNBC.

“But Russia’s problems do not end with oil. With global instability and high inflation, and it is assumed that the decline in oil revenues, the central bank in Russia will find it difficult to start lowering its basic price. It suffocates the Russian non -military economy. Therefore, mainly, about two thirds of the national economy to borrow by 21 %.