The Refers repair function avoids the tax increase – at the present time

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The counselor described it as a spring statement. Conservatives called it the emergency budget. In practice, Rachel Reeves statement, which lasted for the representatives of all the distinguished features of the contract.

The central advantage of the Chancellor’s statement was an explanation of how to fill a 14 billion pounds of financial hole that has been opened since its budget in October, as a result of the high costs of borrowing and stagnant growth.

It was a repair function, which is implemented by a mixture of discounts in social welfare, discounts in planned daily spending, suppression of tax evasion, and Blitz on civil service efficiency, all of which were announced with the minimum noise.

But the inevitable meaning of RefizThe speech was that the main purpose of the spring statement is to maintain the financial width on the road. The next six months seem to be much more economic and political test.

“The world is changing – we can see it and we can feel it,” Reeves told MPS. Donald Trump did not mention the name, but the American president gave a shadow on the counselor’s speech.

Whether its promise to finance or warn British rearmament program that world trade patterns may become “more unstable”, the danger to Britain’s economy from Trump’s presidency is clear.

The budget responsibility office has highlighted the fact that the Reeves Fund is 9.9 billion pounds to absorb shocks against its main financial base-the current spending budget with tax receipts by 2029-30-30-was very fragile.

She said that this was only a third of the average number – 31.3 billion pounds – which has been set aside by former advisers since 2010. If things happen incorrectly, Reeves will have some difficult options in the autumn budget – including the high potential taxes.

“I have exhausted the appetite of the Labor Party to deceive spending. When she returned in the fall with high taxes, it will be in a big problem,” said Oliver Doden, a former deputy prime minister of the Conservative Party, the Financial Times.

Many Labor Party representatives are already very tense about 3.4 billion pounds of the clear luxury savings lined with Reeves; A Evaluating the impact of the government From politics, some have filled with dread.

She found that a quarter of a million people, including 50,000 children, would be pushed to relative poverty as a result of social welfare reforms.

“Mood is dark,” one of the veteran deputy said at work. “You will not see a big revolution or anything but people are retreating.”

The party’s whip may not be very optimistic, given that the welfare package will be subject to the House of Commons vote.

The discounts in daily spending in departments are already resisted by some cabinet ministers and are classified as “a return to austerity” by a conservative party that has long been linked to the phrase. More large discounts will carry a political price.

Reeves hopes to avoid the worst and that Britain can conclude a quick trade deal with Trump to avoid the most punitive American definitions. But Britain will strike like all other economies through a global trade war, which warned OBR to erase the main area that it plans to restore during Wednesday measures.

Tory Shadow Mel Stride said that Reeves was reasonable to have been built in a larger area of ​​her recent financial plans, given the pressure she faced since its budget last October.

While the discounts revealed on Wednesday to re-establish the same level of the head room in its updated plans, he said: “She specifically had this amount by and dawn-and more than that.”

In a deviant warning to the consultant, Stride stressed that if there is another financial repair function by autumn, the governors will be “hate to consider tax increases” if they are responsible for public financial resources.

Any economic deterioration can compel Reeves to return to a higher tax issue, just one year after its announcement of 40 billion pounds of tax increases, which fell 25 billion pounds to employers through the highest national insurance payments.

There were other economic warning signs. OBR suggested that the interest rates on the mortgage will be 0.2 percent highest points during the expected period, which was expected in October.

The predictor also assumed that 76 percent of the cost of NIC’s height will be transferred to workers “through real real wages.” She said that most business leaders polls indicate a significant decrease in nominal wages.

There were some luminous points in the Reeves statement, which would give work deputies. Obr believes that Planning reforms will increase growth Its growth forecast later raised in Parliament to about 1.75 percent, even when this year’s prediction reduced to only 1 percent.

Reeves claims that higher defensive spending, which rises to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2027, will lead to the defensive renaissance and manufacturing in Britain. OBR also welcomed government plans to increase home construction.

The summer will witness that Reeves will oversee a new industrial strategy and conclude a “zero -based review” for all public spending. “This is a government with courage to intensify,” she insisted.

However, the counselor’s ruling was interrogated in the period before the spring statement. Government officials talk about the “chaos” in which the ministers announced 5 billion pounds of luxury savings last week, only for OBR to say that it was only ready to provide a “registration” of 3.4 billion pounds.

Then there was a decision to accept the “promotional gift” tickets to attend the Sabrina Carptter concert at a time when the benefits of patients and disabled people were cut off. The counselor said that for security reasons, but she admitted on Wednesday that she could see some people believed to be “strange.”

You will need to be more certain in the coming period. Although the spring statement was a difficult moment for Reeves, there was a feeling between deputies who were drifting from the public room that the next six months would be the most test and will determine its advisor.