The prediction of the viral earthquake went. Do people give wrong hope?

Brent Demtdrouk calls himself the prediction of the earthquake.

In the middle of October, tens of thousands of social media followers were told that the earthquake would soon collide in the far west of California, south of the small coastal city of Yorca.

Two months later, the size of 7.3 hit the site in northern California – placed millions under a tsunami warning and the development of Mr. Demtdrouk’s follow -up on the Internet as they turned to him to predict the following women.

“So for people who reject what I do, how you can argue that it is just a coincidence. It takes a serious skill to find out where the earthquakes go,” he said on New Year’s Eve.

But there is one problem: earthquakes cannot be predicted, as the scientists who study them say.

This is exactly the inability to predict it makes it very troublesome. Millions of people who live on the western coast of North America fear that “the big” can strike at any moment, which changes the landscape and an endless life.

Lucy Jones, a seismic specialist who worked in the US Geological Survey (USGS) for more than three decades and has composed a book entitled “The Big Ons”, has focused many of her research on earthquakes and improving flexibility to carry such disaster events.

I always studied earthquakes, Ms. Jones said there are people who want to answer when “The Big One” – which means different things in different regions – will happen and claim that they broke the code.

“The human need to make a pattern in the face of danger is very strong, it is a very natural humanitarian response to fear,” she told the BBC. “It has no predictive power,”.

With about 100,000 earthquakes all over the world every year, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS), it is understood that people want a warning.

Urika – a coastal city 270 miles (434 km) north of San Francisco, where the December earthquake felt more than 700 earthquakes during the past year alone – including more than 10 last week.

The region, where Mr. Dmitruk properly guessed that the earthquake will happen, one of the most active areas of seismic aspect “in the United States, according to USGs. Its volatility is due to the meeting of three tectonic plates, an area known as the triple integine intersection.

The movement of paintings in relation to each other – whether above, below or besides – is the one that causes stress. When the stress is launched, the earthquake can occur.

Ms. Jones said that the guessy that the earthquake would happen here is an easy bet, although the strong size seven is rare.

Usgs notes that there were only 11 of these earthquakes or stronger since 1900. Five, including Mr. Dmitruk, who was promoted on social media, in the same region.

Although guessing was true, Mrs. Jones told the BBC that it is unlikely that any earthquake – including the largest and destructive species of society – was able to predict any accuracy.

Ms. Jones said that there is a complex and “dynamic” group of geological factors that lead to an earthquake.

She said that the earthquake size is likely to form with the event, using tearing a piece of paper as a measure: Rip will continue unless there is something to stop or slow it – like the water signs that leave the paper wet.

Scientists know the cause of the earthquake – sudden movements along the rift lines – but predicting such an event is something that Usgs says it cannot be done and something “we do not expect to know how at any time in the foreseeable future.”

The agency notes that it can calculate the possibility of the earthquake in a specific area during a certain number of years – but this is the closest that can come.

Geological records show that some of the largest types of earthquakes, known as “The Big One” for the locals, occur with a degree of regularity. It is known that the CASCADIA integration area slides every 300 to 500 years, regularly with the northwestern coast in the Pacific Ocean with 100 feet (30.5 meters) Mega-Tsunamis.

While San Andreas’s mistake in southern California is also a source of other “big” capabilities, as the earthquakes that escalate the bone there occur every 200-300 years. Experts said that “Big One” could happen at any moment in any of the region.

Ms. Jones, throughout her career, says that she was alerting her several thousand people to such predictions of a big earthquake – including people in the 1990s who send fools to her office in the hope of alerting them.

“When you get a prediction every week, someone will be lucky, right?” She says laugh. “But that usually goes to their head and expected 10 others not right.”

Such a scenario appears to have happened with Mr. Dmitruk, who has no scientific background. He has long foretold that 10.3 earthquakes will hit southwest Alaska or islands off the coast of New Zealand, a very strong size that he may disrupt global trade.

Usgs says that an earthquake should have three specific elements – history and time, the site of the earthquake and size – in order to be useful.

But the timetable of Mr. Demtdrik continues to shift.

At some point, he said he would come immediately before or after US President Donald Trump’s opening.

Then he said that he would definitely happen before 2030.

While this large earthquake has not hit him yet, Mr. Demtdrok said he still believed that it would happen.

“I don’t think it is only by chance,” Mr. Demtdrok told the BBC. “This is not random or luck.”

Ms. Jones said this type of thinking is common when it comes to earthquakes.

“Random distributions can seem to have patterns, and we see the horoscopes in the stars,” she said.

“A lot of people are really afraid of earthquakes, and the way to deal with it is prediction (when) will happen.”

But only because you cannot predict the date of hitting the earthquake, it does not mean that you should be not ready, as experts said.

Every year, on the third Thursday in October, millions of Americans participate in the largest earthquake on the ground: The Great Shake Out.

It was created by a group at the Southern California earthquake center, which included Mrs. Jones.

During the exercises, people exercise and stick to dropping and stick to them: they fall on their knees, stop under a strong body like an office, and stick for one minute.

The drilling has become very popular from its inception that it has published the coast of the earthquake on other states and countries.

If people in the open air are notified of an open space away from trees, buildings or power lines. Near the ocean, people are fleeing to a higher ground after the shake stops to prepare for the possibility of tsunami.

“Now, although the Earth does not shake, while it is not a very stressful situation, the best time to practice,” said Brian Turbush, director of the earthquake and volcano program in the Department of Emergency Management in Washington.

Regardless of the exercises, residents of the West Coast states use the USGS alert system called Shakealert.

The system works by discovering the pressure waves emitted from an earthquake. Although he cannot predict the date of the earthquake in the distant future, it gives seconds of warning that can be a savior of life. This is the closest to an “predict” earthquake that has been invented so far.