The nationwide protests in Georgia represent a battle to determine the country’s direction toward Europe or Russia

As riot police form a line, raising shields, protesters across the street shout insults and chants at them before setting off fireworks.

Eventually, the protesters are slowly evacuated.

– Suspension of accession talks to the European Union

and its results, the European Parliament Refusal to confessPointing to “major violations.”

This shift in foreign policy is part of the shocking change that Georgia has witnessed over the past several years. The Georgian Dream administration, once seen as a pro-Western bastion in the region, has instead been charting a course increasingly aligned with Moscow since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Strategic partnership“The program is with Tbilisi on November 30.

While Georgia was seen as the West’s darling in the South Caucasus, geopolitical realities contributed to limiting those ties, says Korneli Kakachia, a professor of political science at Tbilisi State University.

“Although Georgia had closer contacts with the European Union and the United States, it did not solve the country’s main problem, which is security – the ever-present threat to Russia,” Kakachia said.

Consolidation of power

However, the primary motivation for this transformation was local, Kacaccia said: a simple desire to consolidate power by elite members of the Georgian Dream. ومن بين هؤلاء بيدزينا إيفانيشفيلي، مؤسس الحزب الملياردير In reality

Kakachia said Ivanishvili – who distinguishes between the interests of Georgia’s ordinary people and those of its wealthier members – was referring to him personally.

“He didn’t want to lose power, so he wanted to make sure that no one would challenge him,” he said, adding that Ivanishvili “has now basically taken over all state institutions — he can fire the prime minister tomorrow, announce any policy, without having to.” Any checks.”

Russia is unlikely to intervene openly

Other observers agree that although Moscow is certainly happy with Georgia’s current path, the country ranks much lower on the Kremlin’s list of priorities than many in Georgia assume.

“I would be very hesitant about seeing Russia as the main driver of events in Georgia,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

He says that unlike Ukraine and Belarus, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not see Georgia as part of Russia’s historic heart, and there is nothing specific — such as territory, base rights or mineral concessions — that he wants from the country.

“Above all, the Kremlin wants a neighbor that does not openly challenge it,” Galeotti said, adding that this is a condition fulfilled by the Georgian dream.

He says there are few signs that Russia would consider intervening overtly in Georgia, and fewer effective tools to do so.

He added, “Given the war in Ukraine and the sudden setbacks in Syria, it will be difficult (for Moscow) to find regular military forces to intervene.”

Drawn parallels Between the current demonstrations in Georgia and 2013-2014 And in Ukraine, where pro-European demonstrators were able to oust Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who sparked anger when he refused to establish closer relations with the European Union in favor of joining the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.

Although the comparison is not exact, that successful civil uprising offers useful lessons for the current movement in Georgia.

“Many countries with authoritarian regimes suffer from discontent, corruption, and even (armed) insurgencies,” said Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer in German and European studies at King’s College London. “But this kind of success at the field level in overthrowing the government requires the convergence of multiple factors, which is rare.”

The first certainly exists in Georgia. More than 30 Cities and towns across the country saw protests, including major cities such as Batumi and Kutaisi Besides smaller rural Cities.

إلا أن نفوذ المعارضة الجورجية على مؤسسات الدولة يظل هامشياً. While Georgia is not as authoritarian as Russia or Belarus, it is far less divided than the Ukraine of 2013.

Meanwhile, a steady trickle of government defections continued. Characters like mid-level Heads of Homeland Security

On unofficial executors, known as Titushki,

والمتظاهرون يتكيفون أيضًا. Recent days have seen a growth in “anti-Titushki squads” in demonstrations. هدفهم هو صد شرطة مكافحة الشغب أثناء محاولتها القبض على المشاركين واحتجازهم.

Cheers rang out from the crowd on Rustaveli Avenue around midnight Saturday as a group of 50 young men — all rugby players, one Georgian journalist told CBC News — marched proudly down the street, heading to the site of a recent scuffle with police.

The ongoing Georgian protests and the government’s violent response are unprecedented in the country’s 33 years of independence.

As tens of thousands of Georgians continue to take to the streets every night, it remains unclear whether they will succeed, but the stakes could not be higher.

Ban all major opposition parties In the near future, this may be the last chance for protesters to halt the authoritarian decline in their – and Russia – friendly country.