- President Trump broke the temporary stop button on some definitions Before large banks are interested in face to face with analysts about their profit guidelines on Friday. The president’s declaration on social media was an immediate impact on the markets, with Nasdak Today, 12 % end, while the S&P 500 increased by more than 9 %. Individual stocks ascended: Delta Airlines Remove 23 %, Nafidia More than 18 % rose, and appleWhich saw more than $ 770 billion in value evaporates after concerns about the retail price of iPhone, closed today by 15 %.
The stock markets erupted with a heavy increase in optimism after the position of President Donald Trump on the social truth Stopping Some customs tariffs, and his comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Beesen reassure the world that the United States is not involved in a commercial war.
Despite the short comfort of the week’s massacre, though a Effective chilling Wlouted over the next 90 days.
“Each director of the portfolio is trying to find out if you can draw a straight line for future negotiations,” said Jake Schormeer, the wallet manager in Harbor Capital and a former member of the New York Reserve Bank Group. “We get another 90 days before we have to do this song and dance again.”
To the group level: President Trump announced A set of definitions During the roses garden’s speech last week, the vulnerability has been made since its campaign. Investors were priced in definitions and the subsequent impact on commercial policy, but the extent of definitions was More than expected. The markets decreased on trading days after Trump’s announcement. The word “stagnation” – in general to avoid At any cost – due to the existence of a point of discussion, the chances of the United States stumbling in one roseAccording to Jpmorgan ChaseWho is CEO Jimmy Damon Declare The recession was “a possible result” after the tariff of the turmoil. Trump said that Damon’s comments were taken into account His decision To issue a partial stop on Wednesday.
After Trump’s announcement, the markets organized a challenging gathering of gravity, as Nasdak ended today by 12 %, while the S&P 500 increased by more than 9 %.
Michael Orlando, CEO of the GB Morgan Commodities and Energy Management Center at Colorado Denver University, said, said Michael Orlando, CEO of the GB Morgan Commodities and Energy Management at Colorado Denver, said, luck The customs tariff stop is relief, most of which is uncertain, which continued to influence stock prices. but Larger developmentOrlando said that we appeared at the end of the week, that the American treasury “stopped seeing it as a safe port at the time of uncertainty and began to look like a risky bet,”
“I think this identification period” has done a lot to dispel fears that the president may not understand the idea of gains from trade. “
But the question remains: What happens after that?
Victory air cover “
First, there is a consideration about whether the damage caused by the definitions will be permanent, as well as the cost of the spreading economic uncertainty. He said that all planning for capital expenditures and the main strategic movements have been delivered from the window because there is no certainty.
The wallet manager indicated that there will be important signs to search for them during profit calls between major companies and analysts this week, especially with regard to how CEOs and financial managers are planned to struggle with questions related to tariffs – and anything else may cause disturbances.
“This provides a wide atmosphere to drop any bad news,” Shormeer said. “Any bad news you have, take it out of this quarter.”
Shormeer added that money managers will also monitor to find out how adult bank leaders, such as Damon, talk about how their customers respond, the perspective of integration and purchase activity, and guidance on their willingness to provide credit. Currently, it is too early to talk about possible loan losses, but other topics will be an indication of whether there is a stronger feeling of business.
“All they say will be very useful,” said Shormeer.
China: from 104 % to 125 %
The other issue that waves on the horizon is China.
The next few weeks are likely to reach the impact of more revenge after China has pledged “fighting to end” even before Trump raised the country’s tariffs to 125 %. Trump responded without stopping China’s tariff, and instead Their rise Because of “China’s lack of respect,” the president wrote on social media.
“The situation with China is very dangerous, from the customs tariff levels to the possibility of obtaining a broken trade relationship between the two largest economies in the world, said Idanna Appio, a wallet director at the First Eagle Investments and Vice President of the World Economic Analysis Department at the Federal Reserve in New York.
Abu said that economic tensions will reach the level that China will become in the geopolitical field, it is not clear whether Trump’s recent move will push China towards negotiating the customs tariffs or whether economic tensions will reach a level so that China becomes more facing in the geopolitical field.
“Given the sharp escalation and economic friction between the United States and China, which is clearly not good for the global economy, is this indirect to the geopolitical side?” She said. “If they feel that they did not remain anything to lose them … Do China start pushing to other areas? I hope the answer to that is,” no. “
Economic view: “Very weak”
behind What might happen with China, the US economy is still in a “very weak place”, said Ali.
She put a recession in her expectations, but Appo said she was not sure whether she was removing her at this stage because of the uncertainty that is looming on the horizon even if the definitions were not as large as those that were initially announced last week. In addition, there is still room for more identification procedures and a few cases of uncertainty were eliminated at this stage.
“One of the fear I have is that we finish the recurrence of this entire exercise in 90 days.” “The roller’s journey was at the very least.”
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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