The future of the commercial deal in the question

On Thursday, it was “terrible” and “devastating” for the people involved in the textile sector in Lesoto while digesting news that the country’s exports to the United States would strike a 50 % import tax, or a tariff.

Tebho Kobeli, who founded AFRI-EXPO and used to employ 2000 people in the country, was to hide its Muhawan because he told the BBC about the impact of a great loss from the American market because the prices of his goods should increase.

The small nation in South Africa has become the child of the African Growth and Opportunities Law (AIR)-a 25-year-old legislation from American legislation ensures that fees exempt from American consumers of some commodities from Africa.

The cornerstone is considered in the US -African -African economic relations, and the goal was to help the industry on the continent, create job opportunities and raise dozens of countries of poverty.

It was based on the philosophy of replacing aid with trade.

The overall effect of the ACT is discussed, but it is credited with establishing hundreds of thousands of jobs, especially in the textile sector.

Although President Donald Trump did not mention it by name, the situation is not certain now.

Like a lot that came out of the White House in the first few weeks of his presidency, a declaration on Wednesday planted confusion – especially in this case, in Africa.

On the one hand, there, in its arrangement free of customs tariffs, and on the other hand, there is Trump that determines the definitions of between 10 % (including Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana) to 31 % (South Africa) and 50 % (Lisuto).

Which is the precedence?

South Africa, which exports minerals and cars to the United States, believes that this expresses the end of A.

“The mutual definitions effectively overlook the preferences enjoyed by the countries of sub -Saharan Africa under the supervision of the lower armed forces,” said foreign and commercial ministers in South Africa in a joint statement on Friday.

But Kenya’s lead secretary of Foreign Affairs Kurir Singoy was different.

“From our studied point of view that until the law ends at the end of September 2025 or unless it was canceled earlier by Congress, the new definitions imposed by President Trump, however, are still not applicable to immediately,” he said in a statement.

Kenya, who exports clothes to the United States, tried to put a brave face on this issue, saying that because it was not difficult for other fabric exporters, such as Vietnam and Sri Lanka, he still has a competitive advantage.

Whatever happens to Awaya in the direct term, it appears that Trump’s customs tariffs have sparked hopes for renewing legislation.

The Law of the Klinton era, which began in the current climate, felt like a strange time, to renew later this year.

Since 2000, some African countries have enjoyed the possibility of exempt from customs duties to the American market to obtain a group of goods including clothes, textiles, cocoa and wine products, as well as crude oil.

Access was linked to a number of conditions, including free market policies, work rights, human rights and political pluralism. Thirty -two countries from sub -Saharan Africa were qualified from last year.

In 2023, the total trade in two directions was 47.5 billion dollars (36.4 billion pounds), with the export of the United States worth $ 18.2 billion of goods and imports of 29.3 billion dollars.

By virtue of being among the largest economies of the continent, South Africa and Nigeria took control of trade under the law, but Lesoto benefited completely and became a great source of clothes for the United States, and providing brands such as Wall Mart, GAP and ancient Navy.

But a unique future – for Lesothho and others – represents great challenges.

If nothing changes, “a 50 % tariff appears to be a death to the manufacture of Awaya in Lesoto,” says Maksa Kitoy, the former Secretary -General of the United Nations Trade and Development Conference and former Kenyan Trade Minister.

In 2018, the World Bank made a scenario mixture where Lesotho witnessed the sudden loss of the privileges of April and found that the influence “will reach 1 % of GDP” within two years. The report concluded that the influence on well -being would be “exciting”.

But as I witnessed with aid discounts, the debate about human influence or fairness will not fly in the current group, in the face of “sabotage populism and post -truth society,” says Dr. Kitoy.

He believes that countries, such as Kenya, which have new definitions that have been identified by 10 % are still trying to stick to the American market, as American exporters and importers negotiate how to absorb new taxes without raising consumer prices a lot.

Since Dr. Kitoy participated in commercial negotiations, including Agirat, he saw directly the effort made in “formulating these operations” to create a common benefit from stable trading and rules.

But now, these agreements are believed to be “a hostage to the dominant desires of the political group in America.”

Michelle Javin, an older colleague of political studies in Africa in the Washington -based Foreign Relations Council, said the way the new definitions were calculated “at all” for the economists.

It is somewhat difficult to see “any kind of strategy or clear intention”, from the Trump administration so far, as it tells the BBC.

But the decisions will only exacerbate the loss of the American influence in Africa. China, already the largest commercial partner on the continent, can benefit from further benefit.

“It seems to withdraw and ignore a huge region of the world,” says Gavin.

Soon after the Trump administration has strongly reduced the United States Agency for International Development, which resulted in the abolition of both human health assistance and life saving, the analyst says it appears to be America “destroying its own influence tools with abandonment now.”

Aga has always been seen as an important tool for American soft power, especially in the face of the increasing influence of China and Russia in Africa.

In the past, there was support from the two parties among the American lawmakers, and Dr. Kitoy sees this “glimmer of hope.”

A bill has been issued to obtain a renewal of Awera until 2041 by Democratic Senator Chris Konz more than a year ago, but it may not make any progress in the current Congress.

Mrs. Gavin Ana is now a priority given the global turmoil caused by intense unpredictable political transformations.

“I think the indisputable trade agreement is a very difficult sale of this Congress, which is dominated by the Republican Party, which has so far absorbed the administration’s agenda.”

She believes that although it is “well logical as a political issue”, it is unlikely to be at the forefront and center of the legislators’ agenda “as a matter of politics” even if Congress begins to confirm itself more.

Since Trump’s tariff throws the world in turmoil, it is unlikely that the needs of the continent are unlikely to be all over the world.

If you become vague, Africa will have to look to itself and provide promises to create a free continental trade zone. He will also have to work hard to find new commercial partners or expand the current markets.