The edges of the real estate market in China towards a turning point

BEIJING – On Wednesday, UBS analysts have become expected that the real estate market in China is close to stability.

“After four or five years of the descending cycle, we started to see some relatively positive references,” John Lam, President of the Asia Pacific Company for property in China China at the UBS Investment Bank, told reporters on Wednesday. This is according to the translation of CNBC for his statements in Mandarin.

“Of course, these signals are not at the country level, and they may be local,” Lam said. “But compared to the past, it should be more positive.”

One of the indicators is to improve sales in the largest city of China.

Current homes in five major Chinese cities increased by more than 30 % over last year on a weekly basis starting from Wednesday, according to the CNBC data analysis accessed through wind information. The category is usually called “secondary houses sales” in China, unlike the initial market, which is usually consisted of a newly built housing.

UBS now predicts that the prices of home in China can settle in early 2026, early in the time frame in mid -2016. They expect secondary transactions to reach half the total by 2026.

UBS viewed four factors – a decrease in stock, a premium in land prices, high secondary sales and increased rental prices – which referred to the real estate market turning point between 2014 and 2015. As of February 2025, rental prices have only witnessed improvement.

The Chinese policy makers in September called “Stop” in the decline in the property sectorAnd, which represents the majority of the family’s wealth and just a few years ago contributed to more than a quarter of the economy. Home developers like Evergrande Ownership They were subjected to their debtsWhile real estate sales decreased almost half since 2021 to about 9.7 trillion yuan ($ 1.34 trillion) last year, according to the S & P Global Ratings.

The real estate market in China began its recent decline in late 2020 after Beijing began taking a great dependence on developers on growth debts. Despite a wave of central and local government measures in the year and a half last year, the real estate recession continued.

But after announcing a more powerful incentive late last year, analysts began to predict that a bottom could come as soon as that year.

Once again in January, repeat Considering that the real estate market in China will settle in the second half of 2025. Analysts expected that “secondary sales” was a leading indication of initial sales.

After that, in late February, Larry, the Chinese chief economist in Macquari, indicated three “positive” signals that could support the bottom in home prices this year. He pointed out that in addition to the batch of policy, the levels of unnoticed housing stocks decreased to the lowest level since 2011, and the narrow gap between real estate mortgage rates and rental revenues may encourage housing buyers to buy instead of rent.

But he said in an e -mail this week that what the housing market in China is still the financial support that was directed through the central bank.

Michel Kok, head of the real estate department in Asia in Asia, said in February that there are “10 signs” in the Chinese real estate market. The list included recovery in new home sales, home prices and foreign investment.

The report said that in addition to the state -owned institutions, “foreign capital began to invest in the real estate market,” noting that “Singapore’s developers/investment boxes obtained land sites in Shanghai on February 20.”

Foreign investors are also looking for alternative ways to enter the real estate market in China after Beijing She announced a batch of rental housing at reasonable prices.

In late February, Invesco announced that its real estate investment arm formed a joint project with Ziroom, a Chinese company known locally for its modern housing rental.

The joint project, called Izra Holdings, plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan (about $ 160 million) in the development of housing 1500 rooms near a site in the Beijing Winter Olympics, with a target for 2027.

Calvin Chu, head of the Asia Pacific region, said in an interview that the units will likely be available to rent about 5,000 yuan per month. He said that the financial difficulties of developers have created a gap in the market, and it is expected that the joint project will invest at least two or two projects in China this year.

“The Ziroom database allows the company to quickly evaluate regional factors to choose new developments.