The bets “China is one plus”, as the economies of Southeast Asia get a sharp tariff “Liberation Day”

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A few countries stand out on the new White House plan for the so -called Mutual definitions. Cambodia, with a new tariff of 49 %; Vietnam, with 46 %; And Thailand, by 36 %.

Southeast Asia – even compared to its Asian peers – was particularly difficult.Editing Day

The economies in Southeast Asia have benefited greatly from “China in addition to one” StrategyA approach to supply chains as the main manufacturers began to direct some of their supply chains across the third countries. Both Western and Chinese companies have adopted the diversification of the supply chain for several reasons: the cheapest workers outside China, avoiding customs tariffs, and ensuring flexibility amid disturbances such as Covid-19s.

Vietnam had a $ 123.5 billion trade surplus with the United States last year, which led analysts warning Earlier this year the country was more at risk. Hanoi tried to win himself by cutting import duties in the period before April 2. On Friday, Trump also said he had a fruitful call with the best leader in Vietnam in Lam. According to Trump, Lam Display To reduce the Vietnamese definitions of American goods to zero if the two countries can reach an agreement.

Regardless of Vietnam, three other countries in the region were exposed to a high tariff. Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, which were exposed to 49 % identification tariff rates, 48 ​​%, and 36 %, respectively.

Southeast Asian countries that face a large new tariff include Indonesia, at a 32 % tariff rate and Malaysia at a rate of 24 %.

Vietnam, which derives up to 30 % of GDP of US exports, is likely to be the most difficult blow.

“Within just a few years, Vietnam moved from the primary beneficiary of trade tensions between the United States and China and” Asia’s global offer in Asia to a great goal of the American tariff. ”

The Bank OCBC colleague is now estimated that the GDP in Vietnam will only grow by 5 % this year, a decrease from 6.2 %, due to the definitions. (Vietnam leaders previously hoped that the country would grow up to 8 %.)

The Singaporean Bank also believes that Thailand will suffer from Trump’s tariff, which reduces its growth expectations to 2 %, a decrease from 2.8 %.

Click on China

The next high definitions in Vietnam, Thailand, Laus and Cambodia mean that manufacturers are no longer able to benefit from these economies, which are geographically close to China, as “one plus” destinations.

China got an additional 34 % tariff on “Liberation Day”, as well as a tariff that was previously announced by 20 %.

This puts companies, including many leading American brands, In connection. For example, GAP, Nike and Levi varied their supply chains away from China, moving to other Asian economies to take advantage of low costs and protect themselves from the US -Chinese trade conflict.

Vietnam makes a quarter of Nike products, including half of all its shoes, according to the annual report of the sportswear company. The country of Southeast Asia is also the largest resource in GAP, followed by India and Indonesia. LululeMon also 40 % sources of its goods from Vietnam.

In the past few years, both foreign brands and Southeast Asia have benefited from the “China and one” strategy. Southeast Asian economies have provided lower costs than China, especially with regard to work, while maintaining access to the deep network of suppliers in the country. These countries also attracted investment during the first Trump administration to evade the previous customs tariffs on China. Finally, the supply chain disorders such as Apple’s epidemic, such as Apple, encouraged the diversification of their supply chains, and based on operations in Vietnam and India to avoid their entire dependence in China.

But now these brands are facing a set of bad options: Stay in Southeast Asia and pay high definitions? Try to find another specialty with low customs tariff rates? Or transfer manufacture to the United States (expensive)?

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com



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