The analyst sees Tesla’s Q4 deliveries as slightly above expectations

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Fourth quarter deliveries: Barclays expects Tesla to report fourth-quarter deliveries of 515,000 units, up 6% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate of 511,000 units. A win could keep the stock’s narrative momentum strong, but focus on Tesla’s fundamentals is generally limited, the company tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes a slight decline in trading volume in the near term “will likely not dampen” Tesla’s self-driving car. artificial intelligence propulsion, which it says has recently come into greater focus ahead of a planned “unsupervised FSD” launch in 2025. Conversely, a minor Q4 win will likely be unimportant for the majority of Tesla’s current bull case, she adds. Company. It maintains an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a price target of $270.

Not positive: Barclays also said it believes the post-election rally in Tesla shares reflects a “sharp disconnect” between the stock and the company’s fundamentals. Technology and options play a big role in the rally, the company tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Tesla shares are now better aligned with cryptocurrencies. There are few additional positives to Tesla’s fundamentals from the election, but Elon Musk’s premium is now high, the company asserts. She adds that the past six weeks “serve as a reminder that Tesla remains the king of the narrative within the market, while ignoring the fundamentals.”

While consensus earnings estimates for 2025 have risen slightly in the past six weeks, Tesla’s multiple has increased to a “frothy” figure of 145 times 2025 numbers, up from 80 times just before the election, Barclays notes. He describes Trump’s stance as “not as positive as you think” on Tesla’s fundamentals. The company maintains an Equal Weight rating to Tesla with a price target of $270.

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