Syrians have big plans for life after Assad. But their neighbors may have other ideas

Experts say that Syrians seeking to chart their own political course, free from outside interference, after the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, may be thwarted by the geopolitical ambitions of their neighbors, who already have a foothold in the country.

“We all want this to be a moment of liberation and self-determination” for Syrians, said Mustafa Minawi, associate professor of history at Cornell University.

but, With all the outside players already involved in Syria, “I don’t know how it will happen.” He said.

“They’re not planning on going anywhere.”

These players include Türkiye, which has an ongoing interest in Syria because of its Kurdish minority; Iran, which, along with Russia, supported the Assad regime; Israel, which occupied the Syrian Golan Heights, has expressed concerns about Islamist rebels.

turkey

Observers expect Turkey to play a dominant role in Syria’s future, having established a large military foothold in the northern sector of the country, and controlling areas such as the city of Afrin and parts of the countryside outside Aleppo.

Analysts say these areas act as barriers against Kurdish groups and provide influence over the Syrian political scene.

“While Turkey may call for decentralization or restructuring of Syria, it is unlikely to fully withdraw its influence, as its strategic interests remain deeply tied to Syria’s future.” Sajan M. Gohil, director of international security at the Asia Pacific Foundation in London, said in an email to CBC News.

The main concern for Turkey is Syrian Kurdish forces, which it sees as an extension of the Turkey-based separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which seeks Kurdish autonomy. The Turkish government has classified the PKK as a terrorist group and does not believe that Kurdish forces should have any presence in Syria.

The United States cooperated with those Kurdish forces to defeat ISIS. But this alliance has been a source of tension between Washington and Ankara, even though both are NATO allies.

Minawi said that Türkiye “is very present on the ground.” “They are not going anywhere because there are Kurdish groups along the northern border of Syria that they will not allow to develop their own autonomous region because this threatens Turkey’s autonomy.”

Ankara has the strongest channels of communication and a history of working with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist rebel alliance that now controls much of Syria, putting it in a position to reap the benefits of the Assad regime’s demise, Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Program, Books on foreign affairs.

“Türkiye will certainly have a role to play,” he wrote. “Its support for the responsible groups, the long border it shares with Syria, and its military presence in the country give it significant influence.”

Iran and Russia

The defeat of Assad, who is backed by the Iranian government, represents a major blow to Tehran, which has already suffered strategic losses after Israel bombed its allies Hamas and Hezbollah. In Gaza and Lebanon, respectively.

Jonathan Perron, a historian and specialist in Iranian affairs at the Etopia Research Center in Brussels, said, “Syria represented a starting point for the Iranian regime to extend its influence to the Mediterranean, and that has disappeared.” France 24 said.

“Iran finds itself in an unprecedented position of weakness.”

However, Gohel said its long-term support for Assad and deployment of Syrian Shiite militias has entrenched sectarian divisions in the country, meaning Iran is also expected to maintain some kind of presence.

He added: “Even with a decrease in Iranian support, without Assad’s presence in Syria, the militias may remain influential, which may undermine national unity efforts.”

Minawi agrees that he cannot envision Iran withdrawing completely.

He added: “They have already announced that they are ready to talk to the interim government, but they are largely backing down.”

Fouad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, still says: He told the Wall Street Journal Iran has historically found a foothold in divided countries, and may be able to maintain some influence in Syria, regardless of the country’s political future.

He added, “The Syrian democratic government will not be a friend of Israel, but rather will be supportive of the Palestinian cause,” which is supported by Hamas and Hezbollah, which are supported by Iran.

If the chaos turns into another Libya, that is also something Iran can deal with.”

At the same time, although not a regional neighbour, Russia has played a crucial role in supporting the Assad regime, providing military and diplomatic support.

Gohel says Russia may seek to retain its influence through agreements on military bases, thus ensuring its long-term presence in Syria.

He added: “The West will want this to end, and may be willing to legitimize any regime that replaces Assad, even recognizing the terrorist group Tahrir al-Sham… if it means reducing the presence of Iran and Russia.”

Israel

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has carried out extensive air strikes throughout Syria. At the same time, its forces advanced into a buffer zone of about 400 square kilometers inside its neighbour, which was established by the United Nations after the 1973 Middle East war.

The Israeli military said the air strikes destroyed Syrian missiles, drones, fighter jets, attack helicopters, tanks, radar systems and the country’s small naval fleet.

They “basically paralyzed any military capacity or infrastructure“,” Minawi said. “It’s a way to discredit the country before it even gets off the ground.”

The move to the buffer zone is prohibited under the UN agreement, and has drawn some international condemnation. But Israeli political and military leaders say this step is temporary and not a prelude to further entry into Syrian territory.

Israel says its immediate goal is to prevent the spread of instability in Syria. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the forces would remain “until security on our borders is guaranteed.”

Israel is also taking advantage of the political vacuum to strengthen its defensive positions. Gohel said Israel has supported some rebel groups in southern Syria as part of a strategy to maintain a buffer zone and prevent hostile forces from operating near the Golan Heights.

“This may continue. For Israel, another priority will be to ensure that Syria is not used as a tool to help Hezbollah.”

Avi Dichter, the Israeli minister and member of the mini-cabinet, says that the goal “is to establish the facts on the ground.” The Washington Post reported.

Although Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other Sunni opposition groups have fought for years against Iranian-backed forces, Dichter said Israel was still “preparing for the possibility that the rebels will reach an agreement with Iran, and with Hezbollah.”

The newspaper quoted Dichter as saying that Israel needs to “first see how (the rebels) build their state and army.”