Ships linked to Russia are suspected of carrying out sabotage in the Baltic Sea. Some say it may be just the beginning

Finland says it has found more than two dozen serious defects on board the detained Eagle S, a ship that was carrying Russian oil and is accused of intentionally dragging its anchor in the Baltic Sea on December 25, damaging an underwater power line and four communications cables. . .

Finnish police said on Tuesday they had recovered an anchor from the seabed, which was found along the path of the Eagle S ship. Finnish officials believe the underwater cables, which run between Finland and Estonia, are reinforced with steel and several layers of protective insulation. It was torn apart by a strong external force.

The ship is owned by Caravella LLC FZ, a company based in the United Arab Emirates, and eight crew members are now being investigated.

Suspected of being part of Russia “Shadow Fleet”Used by Moscow to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil, the ship was seized by Finnish authorities as part of a criminal investigation. The country’s public transport agency now says The ship is blocked From running again until 32 problems are fixed.

“At least it won’t be sailing for a long time. I think that in itself is a smart move,” Edward Hunter Christie, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told CBC News.

The accident involving the Eagle S is the third case of damage to critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea in just over a month. One maritime risk expert says it sets a dangerous precedent that could have been predicted by the rise in suspicious behavior by Russia-linked ships in the region.

3 suspected cases of sabotage

Repair of the 170-kilometre Estlink 2 power line is expected to take up to seven months, and electricity prices may rise during the winter in Estonia. The country has sent a patrol ship to help protect Estlink1, the other underwater power link to the Gulf of Finland.

Amid suspected sabotage, NATO pledged to bolster its presence in the region, and the UK activated a new alert system, which uses artificial intelligence to track and warn of potential maritime threats.

Hunter Christie said that when he worked for NATO before 2020, there was discussion about the possibility of targeting underwater infrastructure, but the talks were theoretical.

He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 changed that.

“I don’t think a lot of serious people would question that this was ordered by the Russian state,” Hunter Christie said. He added, “Official statements may be a little more cautious. But I think that behind closed doors no one has any doubt about the nature of this incident.”

Moscow said the seizure of the Eagle S was not Russia’s business. But Alexander Kazakov, a member of the Russian parliament, told a state media program on December 27 that “Russia’s goal is to liberate the Baltic Sea.”

Although he did not specifically say that Russia was behind the damage to the cables, he told the program that it was in response to actions taken by Ukraine and its Western allies.

“We are provoking them to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea… so that we have something to respond to,” he added.

Hunter Christie believes Finland grounded the ship – which was marked under Cook Islands – It sends a strong message to Russia, because it means it has one less ship to transport its oil.

“Suddenly, what seemed like a cheap trick, a relatively low-cost way to inflict a lot of damage and a lot of intimidation on both countries, could become a much more expensive proposition.”

November accidents

Five weeks before the Christmas Day incident, two undersea fiber optic cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea.

A 218-kilometre-long internet cable between Lithuania and the Swedish island of Gotland was damaged on November 17. The next day, a 1,200-kilometre-long cable linking the Finnish capital, Helsinki, to the German port of Rostock was cut.

At the time, suspicions centered around the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Ping 3Which was carrying Russian fertilizer.

After a month-long diplomatic standoff, China allowed investigators from Germany, Sweden, Finland and Denmark to board the ship. But Swedish officials later said China had not responded to the government’s request that a prosecutor be able to conduct a preliminary investigation on board the ship.

The Yi Ping 3, which had been anchored for weeks in the Kattegat Sea between Denmark and the western coast of Sweden, left the area and traveled to Egypt on December 21.

“I think what we’re seeing is that the Russians and the Chinese are starting to use what I call gray zone activities,” said Amy Daniel, co-founder and CEO of Windward, a maritime intelligence company. Windward has been mapping underwater infrastructure, tracking ships, and using artificial intelligence to help analyze ship behavior and assess risks.

“I believe we are stepping into a whole new world of commercial shipping activity that is being repeatedly used to damage national infrastructure on a massive scale multiple times around the world.”

Taiwan said it suspected a Chinese-crewed ship of damaging an underwater cable last weekend. The director of the Hong Kong-registered company that owns the ship told Reuters that there was no evidence of this.

“Cat and mouse game”

Daniel says the lead-up to the November events was his company He was tracking a flurry of activity In the Baltic Sea by shadow carriers who were increasingly turning off their transmitters, obscuring their location and disappearing from radar systems.

According to Windward, during the week of November 7, 116 ships sank, 44 percent more than expected in the region.

Daniel said the public should view what is happening as a game of “cat and mouse,” where there is an incident followed by a response.

The United Kingdom announced on January 6 that it was activating an alert system, called the Nordic Warden, as part of a counter-terrorism plan. Joint Expeditionary ForceWhich consists of 10 countries. The system will use artificial intelligence to track potential threats in 22 regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel. If there is a potential threat to infrastructure, allies will be alerted.

Helsinki will host a NATO leaders’ summit in the Baltic Sea next week, but Daniel says a major complicating factor in protecting the infrastructure is that it passes through vast international waters – and it’s not entirely clear which agencies are responsible for protecting it.

Estonian government will apply To the International Maritime Organization by February to urge it to update maritime law, which the country says does not address underwater damage or cover what should happen if a ship intentionally drags its anchor across critical infrastructure.

Estonia says updating the law would reduce the risk of these types of cases being brought before international courts.

Daniel believes that European countries were “100 percent surprised” by the incidents that occurred in the Baltic Sea.

“I think Russia and perhaps China are after this place, which is perhaps more difficult for Western democracies to protect.”