Scientists find measles that are likely to become a settlement in the United States over the next twenty years

With vaccination rates Among the kindergarten children in the United States, it has decreased steadily in recent years and the Minister of Health and Humanitarian Services, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, undertakes to review the childhood vaccination schedule, and measles and other infectious diseases that have been previously eliminated may become more common. A New analysis It was published today by epidemic scientists at Stanford University trying to identify these effects.

Using a computer model, the authors found that with the current state vaccination rates, measles can re -establish itself and become constantly present in the United States in the next two decades. Their model predicted this result in 83 percent of the simulation. If the current vaccination rates remain the same, the model is estimated that the United States can witness more than 850,000 cases, 170,000 hospitals, and 2,500 deaths over the next 25 years. Results appear in American Medical Association Magazine.

“I don’t see this as a guess. It is a modeling exercise, but it depends on good numbers,” says Jeffrey Griffiths, a professor of public health at the University of Tawaz University in Boston, who has not participated in the study. “The big point is that the measles are likely to become a settlement quickly if we continue this way.”

The United States announced that the measles were eliminated in 2000 after decades of successful vaccination campaigns. Elimination means that there was no series of transmission of the disease in a country that lasts longer than 12 months. However, the outbreak of the current measles in Texas can endanger this situation. With more than 600 cases, 64 cases in hospitals, and two deaths, they are the largest outbreak of the state since 1992, when 990 cases were linked to one outbreak. At the national level, the United States witnessed 800 cases of measles in 2025 until nowMore than 2019. last year, there were 285 cases.

“We are really at a stage that we must try to increase vaccination as much as possible,” says Matthew Kiang, an assistant professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University and one of the paper.

Childhood vaccination in the United States was in a declining direction. The data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found from government vaccination programs and domestic tabs that from the academic year 2019-2020 to the academic year 2022-2023, and coverage between the kindergarten with the required vaccinations for the state It decreased from 95 percent to about 93 percent. These vaccines included MMR (measles, mumps, measles), DTAP (diphtheria, tetanus, cell completion), polio, and chickenpox.

In the current study, Kiang and its colleagues designed each state separately, taking into account their vaccination rates, which ranged between 88 percent to 96 percent for the group, 78 percent to 91 percent for Khamsa, and 90 percent to 97 percent polio vaccine. Other variables included the population composition, vaccine effectiveness, the risk of importing disease, the typical duration of infection, the time between exposure and the ability to spread the disease, and know the disease, also known as the basic reproductive number. The measles are very infectious, where one person can an average of 12 to 18 people. The researchers used 12 as a basic cloning number in their study.