Russia is accused of shooting down the Azerbaijani passenger plane

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Russian anti-aircraft fire may have caused a plane to crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, US and regional officials said.

The Azerbaijan Airlines flight was on its way from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to Grozny in Chechnya, southern Russia, when it changed course and made an emergency landing in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. Twenty-nine passengers survived.

Most of those on board the Embraer 190 plane were Azerbaijani citizens. Also on board were 16 Russians and several citizens of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Russia said in preliminary official reports on Wednesday that dense fog forced the plane to divert from its scheduled landing in Grozny and seek to land in Kazakhstan, where it crashed after likely colliding with a flock of birds. On the same day, the Azerbaijani president said he was informed that the plane had changed course due to bad weather conditions.

But experts and officials in the United States, the region and Ukraine have cast doubt on this, citing evidence that Russian air defenses were operating over Grozny at the time in response to a Ukrainian drone airstrike. They also cited photos of what appeared to be shrapnel in the interior and tail of the crashed plane.

A US official said there were initial indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have hit the plane. If so, the official added, the incident would further underscore Moscow’s recklessness since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council official, posted on Telegram: “Russia was supposed to close the airspace over Grozny, but it did not do so. . . “The plane was damaged by the Russians and sent to Kazakhstan, instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny and saving people’s lives.”

Senior Ukrainian officials confirmed to the Financial Times that Kiev believes the plane was likely hit by Russian air defense systems.

“The following video of the wreckage and conditions surrounding the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicate that the aircraft may have been exposed to some form of anti-aircraft fire,” Osprey Aviation Security said.

A senior official in the Caucasus region said that evidence indicates that the plane was damaged by air defenses over the Grozny region.

“If (Russian authorities) were going to use jamming and anti-aircraft systems, they should have closed the airspace,” the official told the Financial Times. “The most benign explanation for why they don’t is incompetence.”

If the investigation, led by Kazakh officials, finds that the plane was hit by air defense systems, the incident will bring to mind the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014. The accident, which killed 298 people, was caused by a missile that was fired. The investigation concluded that Proxy fighters under Russian control in eastern Ukraine.

Data from the tracking service Flightradar24 shows that the Azerbaijani plane stopped continuously recording its position once it reached the North Caucasus region, indicating that the GPS was jammed.

However, Flightradar24 found that some identifying information was available which showed the plane had arrived in Grozny before changing course to Kazakhstan.

Pictures from the crash site show that most of the plane’s nose was partially destroyed, but a large portion of the tail remained intact. The tail appears to be covered in impact marks and small holes that could be consistent with a strike with a surface-to-air missile defense system, according to military experts.

“The holes in the fuselage are very similar to the impact of the type of projectiles that air-to-air missiles tend to be equipped with, as well as anti-aircraft missiles fired by air defense systems like the Pantsir,” said Ruslan Leviev, a military analyst and head of the Conflict Intelligence Team. Open source investigation suite: “S1”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was too early to speculate on the causes of the accident. Authorities in Kazakhstan said it was “immoral” to blame the missile launches before the investigation was completed.

A National Security Council spokesman said the United States had seen the reports but referred reporters to Azerbaijani and Kazakh officials as the investigation continued.

Israel’s national airline El Al said it will suspend all flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow this week to assess the safety of Russian airspace.

The Times of Israel quoted the company as saying in a statement: “During the next week, a renewed assessment of the situation will be conducted to determine whether the route will be resumed.”

Embraer, the plane’s manufacturer, said in a statement that it was “deeply saddened by what happened.”

“Our thoughts and heartfelt condolences go out to the families, friends, colleagues and loved ones affected by this incident. We are closely monitoring the situation and remain fully committed to supporting the relevant authorities,” the company said.

Cartography by Stephen Bernard