Russia escalated sabotage to pressure the United States and the allies in Ukraine, the study says

Russia has greatly climbed its campaign to sabotage over the past two years, as it sought to pressure Europe and the United States to reduce its support for Ukraine, according to a new study issued on Tuesday.

ReportThrough the Center for Strategic and International Studies, it is one of the first to try to determine the size of the Moscow’s secret campaign that targeted cables, railways and railways. It found that Russian attacks in Europe fell from 2022 to 2023 and then doubled again from 2023 to 2024.

Seth c. Jones, the author of the study and a former US army adviser: “This is an important tool that the Russians use in coordination with their traditional war in Ukraine.” “It is now logical for Russia to pay forces across the border to the Baltic countries or Finland.

Amid Washington’s batch to stop the war in Ukraine, Russia has reduced its sabotage efforts in recent weeks, according to a Western official. But experts believe that the campaign against European targets may continue as soon as governments have made new plans to support Ukraine with weapons or peacekeeping forces.

Anger at the sabotage of Russia has the ability to influence European reactions to the US -led payment to end the war in Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland in a social media position on Monday indicated that the Liton officials confirmed his evaluation that Russia was responsible for a series of fires in the shopping centers in Warsaw and Flenis, the Lituanian capital. “It is good to know this before the negotiations,” Mr. Tusk wrote. “This is the nature of this country.”

The message to countries that support Ukraine was that Russia could impose costs – and increase them. There is little evidence that the Russian campaign was effective last year. But with the appearance of the United States apparently its support for Ukraine and European allies, the question is whether the secret Russian campaign can become more successful in pushing countries to reconsider their support.

The report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that about 28 percent of Russia’s attacks were against transportation targets, 20 percent against industrial targets and 20 percent against sea cables, pipelines and other infrastructure. In general, the study followed 50 separate works to sabotage from 2022 to the present time.

Russia tried to control its campaign and not to escalate a lot. Mr. Jones said he tried to limit the level of violence to avoid supporting Ukraine unintentionally.

“We don’t see many people die now,” he said. “If the train is out of weapons, it will be one thing.

People who were killed as part of the secret campaign, such as a Former Russian helicopter pilot in SpainThey were mainly the fugitive. While Russia tried to avoid killing foreigners, Western intelligence officials said last year it had had it He sought to kill the CEO One of the prominent German weapons maker.

US and European officials were concerned about Russia’s miscalculation and its inability to accurately control some of its customers.

after Russian intelligence was drawn to place incendiary devices On DHL shipping aircraft last year, The Biden Administration has warned President Vladimir F. Putin This sabotage that shot down the plane would cause a dangerous response. European leaders and NATO were repeatedly called for attacks, and they issued warnings and expelled Russian diplomats and spies on them. But the report found that these efforts “failed to force Russia” to stop its campaign.

This effort is part of the Russian tradition of secret sabotage, known as the active measures, which KGB sharpened during the Cold War. Russian military intelligence, known as GRU, led the current campaign, The New York Times reported in May.

The operation was intensified last year, when the Kremlin agreed to a batch after Britain and Germany announced new support for Ukraine, according to the Western Intelligence official. German post Writschaftswcha mentioned The decision to expand the sabotage campaign, including the use of other Russian intelligence services.

The new study did not find any registered attacks in European friendly countries for Russia, such as Serbia and Hungary. On the other hand, Poland, which was the western aid center flowing to Ukraine, was targeted over and over again.

Mr. Jones said of Russia: “They clearly make concrete decisions from those who follow them and those who do not follow him,” said Mr. Jones of Russia.

While cutting the cables carried out by the shadow fleet in Russia, which is trying to evade sanctions, has received a lot of attention in recent months, Mr. Jones said that the majority of the attacks were explosive or incendiary devices that caused fires in factories, warehouses and other facilities.

He added that there have been no cases of sabotage around us in recent weeks. Last year, with the rise of sabotage, military officials ordered US bases in Europe to raise the level of alert.

“I haven’t seen an American goal in the past two weeks, so it seems that they are adhering to the goals of the United States now,” said Mr. Jones.