It was supposed to be a relaxing day filled with tacos, swimming, and watching people surf. But it almost ended in tragedy. Noah Mintz was on a trip to Sayulita, Mexico with his ex-girlfriend and went swimming at the beach. Water looks good.
As he walked back to shore, where the water was just knee-deep and the ocean behind his back, a rogue wave crashed onto him, most likely.
“I was lying face down in the water and unable to move,” said Mintz, 54, of Toronto. “I said to myself: This is the moment. I’m going to die now.”
A rogue wave is 2.2 times larger than the average wave surrounding it. It can be deadly, and catch people by surprise. It can occur when sea waves collide and merge to form a larger wave, according to the Science Daily website. research Published by National Geographic.
According to the United States National Ocean ServiceRogue waves can also be created in a storm, when normal waves move against the typical direction of the current and combine with other waves to form one large, long-lasting wave.
Although the number of rogue waves is difficult to quantify—no organization tracks or infects them—Mintz is not the only one to experience their power. It was one of the largest rogue waves ever recorded off the coast of British Columbia
Johannes Gemrich, who studies these waves, says more awareness is needed about what they can do.
Most people imagine a rogue wave as something that might hit a cruise ship or cargo ship in the middle of the ocean. But they are more than that, he says.
“I think most people are not aware that rogue waves exist, especially since they can also occur in the coastal area where most people interact with the ocean,” said Gemmrich, an oceanographer at the University of Victoria.
Wave strength
While Mintz was face down in the water, he remembered important moments from his life, wanting to find the perfect moment to focus on when he died.
Fortunately, he didn’t need to. Instead, his ex managed to find him in the water and turn him over. He was then lifted onto a surfboard and taken to shore, paralyzed but conscious.
“I know I shouldn’t turn my back on the ocean, but I never really thought about it,” Mintz said.
His neck was broken in two places, in addition to some scratches and cuts. After surgery and a few months of rehabilitation, he made a full recovery, except for some minor nerve damage on his left side.
He was able to emerge again relatively unscathed from his experience. But this is not always the case.
A huge wave hit Ventura Beach in California last week, sending eight people to the hospital. But was it actually a rogue wave? About this product Lauren Bird explains the science of rogue waves and why they are unpredictable.
Mary McNutt, Tassie Notar, and another friend were on vacation in Chacala, Mexico, in December 2023. They had just arrived, and McNutt and Notar, who were 66 and 70 at the time, wanted to go swimming.
There were some waves, so the couple decided to move down the beach to find a quieter area. But while Notar and McNutt, both from Toronto, were enjoying the sun and ocean, a big wave started heading their way.
“This wave was an aberration. This wave was a monster wave,” said Notar, whose length was estimated at about four metres. “It was very high. We turned around and immediately started swimming to shore.”
They didn’t know what to do. The wave was coming fast, and they weren’t close enough to shore to get back.
After the wave hit, Notar was unable to find her friend. I ran to the beach and shouted for help, but no one moved. She then turned to see someone performing CPR on McNaught on the beach.
“We didn’t know at the time, but she was already a quadriplegic,” Notar said.
Weeks later, she was flown to Toronto. She needed breathing support, and they were told her condition was unlikely to improve. She requested to be taken off life support, and died on January 7, 2024.
“All the time she kept reassuring me. ‘I’ve had a really good life,'” she said. “Don’t worry, I’ve had a really good life.”
What can be done?
Notar wonders what else they could have done when they saw the wave, and if there was a way to avoid it.
If it’s far away, you can try to get to shore, says Gemmrich, the oceanographer. But even that is difficult, because he moves much faster than any swimmer.
“The best way is to dive into it. So wait until it gets close or back away slowly, but when it gets close, dive in, because the force decreases as the depth there increases.”
Instead of trying to avoid it, Gemmrich says the answer is early detection.
Early warning system
The study of rogue waves began in the 1990s, when one of these waves was measured by a drilling rig equipped with scientific equipment. Before that, they were considered tall tales told by sailors.
“Even scientists thought it was not possible for there to be a wave twice as high as the background wave,” Gemmrich said.
Research into rogue waves began in the early 2000s. In 2020, what some consider to be the most extreme rogue wave on record was measured at 17.6 metres, off the coast of Ucluelet, British Columbia, well above the average six-metre waves around.
Gemrich studied that particular wave. He says a rogue wave tends to happen once every few days, but if it is small, or if there are no people or boats nearby, no one will notice it.
Although the risk of this forming at an altitude and location that could cause danger to people is small, Gemmrich says it is important for people to be prepared.
That’s why he developed an early warning system. He cannot predict exactly where and when a rogue wave will form, but he can predict when conditions are ripe for a rogue wave to develop.
It takes the expected wind patterns for the next few days, along with the physics of ocean waves. It can then predict the origin and evolution of the wave field. Wants to be implemented in normal expectations.
“This model now serves as a research model and will be transferred to Environment and Climate Change (Canada) in the near future to be introduced into the field of general forecasting,” Gemmrich said.
Notar wishes there had been better signage when she and MacNutt went swimming. She is still demanding better signals near the resort where they stayed, especially for rogue waves.
“For me, I think it’s a rogue wave. If people don’t know what it is, it looks scary. It’s different than a red flag on the beach,” Notar said.
Mintz has learned from the experience. He is not afraid of the ocean and is still willing to swim. But he’s a little more cautious on the beach.
“Like dealing with a wild animal, it’s never predictable. You never turn your back on the ocean until you’re out.”
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