Optimism grows throughout the economy in the United Kingdom amid the commercial conflicts of the United States and the European Union

London-Some investors express increased optimism about the economic outlook in the United Kingdom despite the long structural weaknesses in the country, such as its neighbors in the European Union Deepening their commercial conflict With the United States.

This optimistic tone was not reflected in the Bank of England, as is the case The interest rates kept steadily last ThursdayQuoting the increase in geopolitical uncertainty and indicators of financial market fluctuations. However, economic growth in the United Kingdom – Fitness at best during the past three years It is finally expected to be somewhat captured in 2025, with Bank of America expected to expand by 1.4 %.

Inflation is still It is expected to cool down Once again, close to the goal in the coming months, the labor market is Reducing but still strongAnd the UK government has a specific focus – Sometimes controversially To support growth and reduce the national deficit.

Sanjay Raja, the UK’s chief economist in Deutsche Bank, said that on a modern agent trip to the United States, he pointed to a “emerging sense of optimism” across the UK at one time.

Raja said in a note earlier this month, that the main factors included a hub towards canceling regulatory restrictions and focusing on more capital spending, and the possibility of a strong trade deal with the European Union next year, and expected that the United Kingdom will remain “in the United States” good books “with the start of the trade war.”

US President Donald Trump Express ready To spare the UK from a blanket tariff or targeted, with expectations strengthened by the UK Prime Minister Kiir will pass She made a friendly trip To the White House in February.

Raja said: “The talk about an American trade deal also appeared in customer talks, and there was increasing optimism that the United Kingdom may turn from the direct and wide tariff,” Raja said.

Some felt that “structural growth can increase after a fixed decline since the global financial crisis,” and continued, while a A wide European batch to increase Spending on the national defense can benefit British companies. The anxiety points remain for investors The sale of January in the debts of the UK governmentRaja noticed the Capital Hall and the sustainability of spending discounts.

The United Kingdom may have succeeded in the worst Trump speech so far – like A 200 % threat of definitions on alcohol imports in the European Union But it is not completely fortified from the Washington’s protective batch.

Gabriella Dickens, an economist at Axa Investment, noted that the United Kingdom is still successful because of New American definitions on steel and aluminum. The UK has exported a total of 370 million pounds (479.7 million dollars) from steel to the United States in 2024, according to Trade Group UK Steel, which accounts for 9 % of the total US steel exports. The value of aluminum exports in Britain to the United States reached about 225 million pounds last year, Aluminum Union in the United Kingdom says.

Dickens told CNBC that the United Kingdom will also be affected by any slowdown in global trade, including whether this leads to weak demand in its main partners such as the European Union, and if the public uncertainty gives business confidence and consumption.

“The feelings of investors may be strengthened if the UK can avoid more customs tariffs, especially if trade tensions increase with the European Union,” said Dickens. In the possible event, Trump follows, through his previous threat, with 25 % blanket definitions on the European Union, and a “batch of materials” will be provided to the United Kingdom, where manufacturers are likely to look forward to moving.

The UK still can avoid more customs tariffs, as it does not have a major trade surplus with the United States and most of that depends on services. She has already pledged to increase her defensive spending as a share of GDP (GDP), and avoids a lot of Trump’s anger with other countries.

Dickens added: “None of these UK spared the tariffs of steel and aluminum,” Dickens added.

Lindsay James, a Quilter Investors strategy, also stressed the current impact of steel and aluminum duties in the UK and the potential risk brand of Mutual In early April, early April.

James told CNBC: “The idea that the value -added tax is a kind of tariff that caused the White House, as the UK again put a great danger in entering the American commercial policy,” James told CNBC.

“While the reality is likely to be deliberately distorted by the White House in order to obtain the advantage of negotiation, the UK has not reached some extent, and if Donald Trump’s demands for Ukraine are what any future trade deal is going through it is likely to come at a high price.”

James added that while the government was working to improve the foundations of the UK economy in the long term, growth remained in a weak path in the short term, as companies reached the highest costs A result of last year’s budget And continuing issues with “oldest and sick workforce. “

She said: “While the stock market (UK) has so far benefited from its perception of defense, evaluating a modest start and strong performance from the sectors of represented significantly such as oil, gas and financial data, the difference in the performance of the economy can lead to the continued significant maximum index of superiority over local stocks.”