- Whether it is investment banksAnalysts, or economists, often agree that the customs tariff is bad news before President Donald Trump called “Tahrir’s Day”.
Economists raise the possibility of recession, and investors are concerned about the definitions of the so -called “Editing Day“But there is a talk about the bottom of the market. Welcome to the week that dates back to April 2: President Donald Trump will promise him to impose a mutual tariff for the dollar.
Tom Lee Proposal On CNBC The two markets can have “correct pieces” down this week. Fundstrat founder received a reputation for his last and correct market ExpectationsHis invitation to get the bottom of a bullish sign will be that the worst sale process may end, which spoils the way for apostasy.
Currently, investors are concerned about the form of customs tariffs on April 2, whether they will harm the economy, and other policies coming from the Trump administration, they told me. He added that the markets are exaggerated and investors do not ignore.
“It is an endless waiting for people because it is still three days, and they are afraid that we will have three days by 2 %,” he told me.
But he believes that the United States will come out of this well, and compare the current situation Britain from the European Union, when the United Kingdom withdrew from the European Union, but it eventually witnessed the gathering of stocks. However, there is distortion in the American economy at the present time. He said that people buy wine and cars before definitions, and this is not great for prices.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is increasingly suspected that the definitions can send the economy to contraction.
On Sunday, the chief economist in Moody Mark Zandy raised his possibility. He now sees a 40 % opportunity for this year’s recession to happen; It was previously suspected of having a 15 % chance. Zandy blames an intense commercial war of Trump’s tariff and the demobilization Feelings.
Zandy said the next mutual definitions will get worse. x. “As long as the definitions and the cutting of the stabilization continue, as well as the possibility of stagnation”, it is books.
He is not the only one who sees a greater chance of stagnation. Goldman Sachs said that there is 35 % an opportunity This gross local product can contract for two consecutive periods, in a research note issued on Sunday. Earlier, the investment bank only witnessed the risk of 20 % of the recession.
The bank said that the customs tariff is once again to blame it because of its impact similar to the available income and consumer spending, in addition to its tendency to pay the markets around it. When companies face an additional tax, they tend to transfer this cost to consumers, and for this reason the customs tariff is inflated – and why one of the intellectual tanks is Secure They are “a recipe to make Americans worse off.”
Jpmorgan said there is a 40 % probability that the economy will fall into the recession this year because it sees a decrease in growth and high inflation in the back of a 11 % actual tariff.
Car tariffSpecifically, it is in the minds of analysts. Trump put a 25 % tariff on cars and external parts. The fees will not harm the cars made in America, but according to one of the analysts, there is nothing like the car that was fully made in the United States
So the car tariff will be “a back cutter and a pyramid of the automotive industry,” wrote Dan Evz, a Wedbush analyst in a note published on Monday morning. It was estimated that the model car will be from 5000 to 10,000 dollars more expensive for the American consumer because the auto industry will bear 100 billion dollars at costs every year. “The concept of the American auto maker with parts of the United States is a fictional story that does not exist and it will take years to make this concept true,” Evez wrote.
In a note published on Monday, Bank of America Evis and other others, and frankly called “automatic definitions”, and that the idea that it will create more jobs does not pass the “sound economic theory” test.
Housing world Anxious About definitions as well. Trump put a tariff on steel and aluminum, and it can be the next wood. They are all used in building houses. Estimation builders Fees An additional $ 9000 can be added to the price in every home. Consider housing in the postpartum stage to stop Because of the deterioration of the ability to withstand costs and the effect of the lock, many people have not been able to withstand the cost increase.
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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