Netanyahu eyes Iran after victories over Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria by Reuters

Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI (Reuters) – The year 2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran, his country’s arch enemy.

The veteran Israeli leader is set to advance his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and capitalizing on the dismantling of Tehran’s allies – the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, and the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The collapse of Assad, the elimination of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, and the destruction of their military infrastructure represent a series of massive victories for Netanyahu.

Without Syria, the alliances fostered by Tehran for decades collapsed. As Iran’s influence weakens, Israel emerges as the dominant power in the region.

Netanyahu is preparing to focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile program, with an unwavering focus on dismantling and neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel.

Middle East observers say that Iran faces a stark choice: either continue its nuclear enrichment program or reduce its nuclear activities and agree to negotiations.

Jost R. said: Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, said: “Iran is highly vulnerable to an Israeli attack, especially against its nuclear programme.” “I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel did that, but that doesn’t get rid of Iran.”

Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al-Khatib said, referring to President-elect Donald Trump, “If they (the Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu may strike, as there is nothing stopping them now.” Al-Khatib said that the Iranian leadership, having shown pragmatism in the past, may be willing to make concessions to avoid a military confrontation.

Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 deal between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear goals, is likely to tighten sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, despite calls for a return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective means in the long term. . policy.

Definition of inheritance

Amid the turmoil in Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a crucial role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took his side on measures that have deeply divided Israelis.

As 2024 draws to a close, the Israeli Prime Minister is likely to agree to sign a ceasefire agreement with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old war in Gaza and release Israeli hostages held in the Strip, according to sources close to the negotiations.

But Gaza will remain under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war American plan requiring Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority, which Netanyahu rejects. The Arab countries have shown little inclination to pressure Israel to make concessions or push the deteriorating Palestinian Authority to reform its leadership to take power.

Al-Khatib told Reuters, “Israel will remain militarily in Gaza for the foreseeable future because any withdrawal risks reorganizing Hamas. Israel believes that the only way to preserve military gains is to remain in Gaza.”

For Netanyahu, such an outcome would represent a strategic victory, reinforcing a status quo that is consistent with his vision: preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state while ensuring Israel’s long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem — territories internationally recognized as an integral part of a Palestinian state. The future Palestinian state.

The Gaza War broke out when Hamas militants stormed Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage, according to Israeli statistics. Israel responded with an air and ground attack that killed 45,000 people, according to health authorities there, displaced 1.2 million others, and destroyed much of the Strip.

Arab and Western officials say that while the ceasefire agreement would bring an immediate end to hostilities in Gaza, it would not address the deeper Palestinian-Israeli conflict that has been going on for decades.

On the ground, the prospect of establishing a Palestinian state, an option that Netanyahu’s government has repeatedly ruled out, has become increasingly remote, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will more closely align with their views.

Rising settler violence and growing confidence in the settler movement – ​​billboards on highways in some areas of the West Bank carry the message in Arabic “No future in Palestine” – reflect increasing pressures on Palestinians.

Crisis Group’s Hiltermann said that even if the Trump administration pushes for an end to the conflict, “any solution will be on Israel’s terms.”

He added: “The matter is over when it comes to the Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there.”

In Trump’s previous term, Netanyahu achieved several diplomatic victories, including the “Deal of the Century,” a US-backed peace plan that Trump put forward in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The plan, if implemented, would represent a radical shift in US policy and international agreements by openly siding with Israel and departing sharply from the long-standing land-for-peace framework that has historically guided negotiations.

It will allow Israel to annex vast areas of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognize Jerusalem as the “united capital of Israel” – effectively denying the Palestinians’ claim to East Jerusalem as their capital, an aspiration central to their state goals and in accordance with UN resolutions.

Syria is at a critical crossroads

Across the border from Israel, Syria is at a critical juncture after the overthrow of Assad by the rebel forces of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani.

Al-Julani now faces the huge task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria, where the army and police forces have collapsed. HTS must rebuild from scratch, secure borders and maintain internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and other adversaries.

The biggest fear among Syrians and observers alike is whether Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which was once linked to al-Qaeda but now presents itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, will revert to a hardline Islamist ideology.

The group’s ability — or failure — to manage this balance will shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians.

Hiltermann said: “If they succeed in this (Syrian nationalism) there will be hope for Syria, but if they return to their comfort zone of strongly ideologically tainted Islamism, it will lead to division in Syria.”

He added: “There could be chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, just as we saw in Libya and Iraq.”