Luxurious companies face a tariff with recession fears

Luxury brands in Europe may be largely protected from the initial effects of the collection of American customs tariffs, but the risk of broader economic contraction related to the long -awaited refreshed to the sector.

European luxury stocks LVMHand Richmontand dry and Hermes He was among those who were slipped on Wednesday, as she took the fees on American imports from the European Union. The look is still unclear, even with President Trump’s announcement later 90 days stop and reduce rates to 10 % global tariff.

The role of advanced fashion-which is the brand of the classification made in EUROPE is part of gravity-less vulnerable from other companies to bend to President Donald Trump’s final demand to transfer manufacturing to the United States, and instead it will indicate that it will transfer the increasing import costs of consumers.

However, the broader decline in the global economy can make these increases more difficult to tolerate, even for wealthy shoppers, who are usually more able to absorb prices shocks.

Possibilities a United States and global stagnation This year increased to 60 % after the announcement of the “Tahrir Day” tariff for JPMorgan, with the CEO Jimmy Damon He says Wednesday that the resulting market turmoil Make the recession “possible”.

Adam Kokran, a luxury stock research analyst in Deutsche, wrote in a memorandum on Wednesday: “The global stock markets are the weakest and broad economic uncertainty will affect confidence and we see that postponing the recovery in luxury demand,” wrote Adam Kokran, a luxury stock research analyst in Deutsche, in a note on Wednesday.

Luka Solka, chief analyst of international luxury goods in Bernstein, chanted this feeling, which is called the effect of the first round of American definitions as “little” but indicates noticeable effects.

“What we should be concerned, in the case, is the second and third effects of the new American policies, if they are sent with sharp correction in the stock market and the stock market correction,” Solka wrote in the memorandum last week.

European luxury companies are born widely 15 % to 30 % of sales from the Americas as a whole, according to Bernstein estimates. However, the US market has become an important growth engine in the last quarters as companies have About their focus Amid China’s sales declining. Meanwhile, the demand for Chinese demand already increased 125 % of the American customs tariff, which is valid on Wednesday.

This comes as a fourth quarter of the high -end fashion collections that indicated a shift in this sector, which suffered from post -judgment and soft consumer spending. However, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday that the bounce could be “anomalies, not direction.”

“It is no longer clear that 3Q24 was NADIR for luxury demand,” Kokran wrote, noting that the bank has reduced the growth expectations of the luxury sector 2025 on the basis of a fixed currency by 3 percent to 2 %.

CITI agreed on Tuesday’s writing that “the announcement of the worst American tariff from the United States and the strong sale in the market represents” a major threat to the future of the US luxury demand. “

Between brands The best in storm modeAccording to analysts, they are Hermes and barbaric While companies such as Richmont and moncler It can be the most difficult to hit.