Low demand for oil, the weakest economy: OPEC Review 2025 expectations on commercial tensions

On April 14th, the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) reduced its expectations for the growth of global demand for oil demand, noting the slowest directions in the first quarter and commercial tariffs in the United States. The group has also expanded the scope of global economic growth forecast for the next year, which highlighted the increasing uncertainty in the wake of geopolitical and commercial transformations.

OPEC monthly reports estimate that the demand for global oil will increase by 1.30 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2025 – 150,000 barrels per day less than last month. The descending review stems from the weakest data expected in early 2024 and the new US tariffs.

Over the course of 2025, the growth of oil demand in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to be at 0.04 million barrels only, a decrease from 0.1 million. The demand for OECD countries is now expected to increase by 90,000 barrels per day, much less than 1.3 million barrels per day previously.

Looking at the year 2026, global demand is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day, a slight decrease from 1.4 million barrels per day in expectations last month. OPEC expects that the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will add 0.08 million barrels per day and heterogeneous countries from the first countries in order to contribute 1.2 million barrels per day-both auditors from previous numbers.

OPEC has also reduced global economic growth forecast. It is now expected that the global economy will grow by 3 % in 2025, a decrease from its previous 3.1 % forecasts. For 2026, the group predicts 3.1 % of growth, which is less than 3.2 % of last month.

“The global economy has shown a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the dynamics related to modern trade provided uncertainty for the expectations of global economic growth in the short term,” OPEC pointed out.

OPEC expects that the American economy will expand by 2.1 % in 2025 and 2.2 % in 2026, expecting a slowdown in the first half of 2025 before settling with the collection of commercial agreements. The growth in the euro area was revised to 0.8 % for 2025, with 2026 fixed at 1.1 %. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.6 % in 2025 and 4.5 % in 2026. According to the report, China “has a way to reduce the effect of (American definitions), such as home motivation measures or diversification of its export markets.”