Lebanon turns a political page as Hezbollah’s grip weakens

For decades, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon was iron-clad.

Thanks to its massive arsenal, the armed group was stronger than the country’s national army. It controlled or controlled Lebanon’s most important government agencies as well as critical infrastructure, such as its border with Syria and the commercial port. Almost no major political decisions can be made without its support, and no political party can seriously challenge any move taken by it or its sponsor, Iran.

But this long-standing status quo has now been shaken – a shift for Hezbollah that has opened a new political chapter in Lebanon.

Fourteen months of fighting against Israel has destroyed the once untouchable Shiite community. Rebels It overthrew its main ally In neighboring Syria, dictator Bashar al-Assad. Iran also finds itself now weak after it and its allies were subjected to a severe blow from Israel.

Hezbollah is on its shakiest ground in years, as power dynamics are realigned across the Middle East after more than a year of war and turmoil. While the group remains powerful — it still has several thousand fighters and commands the loyalty of most of the country’s Shiite Muslims — analysts say one thing is clear: The era of Hezbollah and unwavering Iranian dominance in Lebanon appears to be over.

“It’s a new political reality,” said Muhannad Haj Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. He added: “It will take some time for this new reality to unfold, but what we have seen so far is enough to show us that the tide has turned.”

Those political quicksands were laid bare on Thursday, when Lebanon’s parliament elected a new president, overcoming years of political stalemate that many critics attributed to Hezbollah’s efforts to block any attempt at a solution. Political paralysis has left the country under a weak and ineffective caretaker government for more than two years.

In Lebanon, many people witnessed the elections on Thursday General Joseph AounCommander of the Lebanese Army, as a decisive step towards achieving stability in the country. Hezbollah also viewed it as a concession, some analysts said, as an admission that the group was no longer in a position to paralyze the state.

Since Lebanon’s founding, numerous factions and sects from more than a dozen religious groups in the country have competed for power and influence. Its fragile political system relies on agreements between parties and sects, as well as its foreign backers. This regime has managed to hold the country together by a thread, as it has moved from one crisis to another since the end of the 15-year civil war in 1990.

Over the past three decades, Hezbollah – a political party and armed group – has outmaneuvered its local opponents and forged strategic alliances to strengthen its position as the real force underpinning the country’s weak and divided state.

Even as the government struggled to keep the lights on and the water running, Hezbollah built a vast network of social services — including high-quality health care and free education — for its mostly Shiite supporters.

But over the past three months, the group has taken a series of devastating blows.

Its war with Israel has eliminated Hezbollah’s top brass, destroyed large parts of its arsenal and left the country facing a multibillion-dollar reconstruction bill. Its painful defeat also shattered Hezbollah’s promise to the Lebanese that it alone could defend Lebanon against Israel – a claim that served as the group’s official raison d’être.

Then last month, the group lost its main land bridge of weapons and money, as well as its political ally, when Syrian rebels, whom Hezbollah once fought, overthrew Assad’s government.

Iran, Hezbollah’s sponsor, has also been on the defensive since the ouster of Mr. Assad, and given its rising tensions with Israel, including direct conflict through missile launches.

Iran’s anti-Israel militia network, known as the “Axis of Resistance” – in which Hezbollah was a major player – has collapsed, taking with it Tehran’s ability to project its power as far west as the Mediterranean and south as far as the Arabian Sea.

Without these pillars of support, Hezbollah’s ability to influence Lebanese politics has diminished, even as the group and its allies attempt to present themselves as the country’s agenda setters. Their waning influence was evident even before the vote, when late Wednesday night the Hezbollah-backed presidential candidate withdrew from the race.

“Hezbollah’s narrative has been seriously discredited, its army has been seriously weakened, and in my view, it will have to start paying the price politically,” said Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

Most experts agree that even in its weakened state, Hezbollah remains the most dominant political force in Lebanon. But they say that this is not evidence of the group’s control of power as much as it is a reflection of the political imbalance and internal fighting in the country. This dysfunction was on full display during parliamentary voting on Thursday, which often devolved into shouting matches before votes were cast.

Analysts say that the election of General Aoun as president of the country on Thursday is the first step in defining a new political map for the country and the region. It is widely believed that General Aoun has the support of the United States and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis once competed for influence in Lebanon before being overtaken by Iran and Hezbollah.

In his victory speech, General Aoun alluded to the vision that he and his allies share regarding a new political era in Lebanon, and said that today represents “a new phase in the history of Lebanon.”

He referred to the Arab countries, which Iran once expelled from Lebanon, as “sister” countries. He spoke of the state’s “right to monopolize the possession of weapons” – a subtle reference to calls for Hezbollah to disarm after the 60-day ceasefire with Israel ends later this month. He envisioned a state that could be defended through its national army, in the absence of militias like Hezbollah that had long dragged the country into infighting and war.

General Aoun said: “My pledge is to call for a defense strategy and the establishment of a state – and I repeat a state – that invests in its army, controls all borders, and implements international resolutions.”

However, experts warn that the country is still in the early days of this new political chapter – and that Hezbollah may rebound again. The coming months will be full of crucial tests for the party, including whether it can help rebuild large swaths of the war-ravaged country and whether it withdraws completely from southern Lebanon, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement.

“Hezbollah has taken astonishing blows in terms of its strategic power and its ability to confront Israel,” said Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute in Washington. But inside Lebanon, the group remains heavily armed, and stronger than any other group in the country.”